# Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30

> Closed. Last odds frozen 20 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-blockade-taiwan-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $26K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | 3¢ | ±0 | $26K | polymarket | /markets/will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30-polymarket-0xb215decbedd846168842f6e207f09bd5f50ce51d2191f238887d976ec21b6f66 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 1 |
| 2026-06-13 | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | 1 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that China will impose a blockade on Taiwan between now and June 30, 2026. The 13% estimate suggests traders view such action as unlikely but material. The probability sits at a six-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi traders assigning higher risk than Polymarket participants. Key drivers include current military posturing, statements from Beijing and Taipei, incidents in the Taiwan Strait, and U.S. policy responses. The period through June 30 is relatively short for major geopolitical escalation, which helps explain the modest probability. Major developments in cross-strait tensions, military exercises, or international statements could quickly shift assessments. April-June typically sees seasonal patterns in military activity in the region, making real-time monitoring important for tracking whether conditions are normalizing or deteriorating.

### Key factors

- Current Chinese military exercise frequency and stated intentions regarding Taiwan as reported by defense ministries and intelligence assessments
- Taiwan Strait transit incidents and vessel activity levels, which indicate baseline tension between routine commercial traffic and military provocations
- Official statements from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington regarding defense commitments and red lines, which frame escalation thresholds
- Any significant military incidents or accidents that could trigger unintended escalation mechanisms
- Time remaining until June 30 relative to historical precedent for blockade implementations, which typically require significant advance positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

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