# What will China GDP growth be in 2026?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 17 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-gdp-growth-2026
Updated: 2026-07-23T06:41:22.673Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-15

## Headline

- Leader: — at 74%
- Runner-up: 4.0–5.0% at 50%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 35% / Polymarket 23% — 12pp spread
- 24h volume: $529K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%? | 95¢ | +7pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.4 |
| 4.0–5.0% | 88¢ | — | $208K | polymarket | /markets/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026-4050-polymarket-0x4ab00a29b7f3d12114932a728eca136a00685176808ee001f0f375e6f0abb071 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%? | 84¢ | +7pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.3 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%? | 82¢ | −2pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.2 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.0%? | 81¢ | ±0 | $143 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.0 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%? | 55¢ | −6pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t-0.1 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%? | 37¢ | −4pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.2 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.1%? | 21¢ | +1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.1 |
| Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%? | 18¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26sep08-t0.6 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.7%? | 14¢ | −6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.7 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.3%? | 13¢ | −6pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.3 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%? | 13¢ | −2pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.8 |
| 5.0–6.0% | 11¢ | — | $78K | polymarket | /markets/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026-5060-polymarket-0x0d85d1d5770061f2fee67f1cbbaf88fd22ed36a5c2d1c76569bc025202e78ada |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%? | 9¢ | −6pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.6 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%? | 3¢ | −7pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.4 |
| Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.5%? | 3¢ | −6pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-adv-for-q2-2026-be-kalshi-kxitgdpqoqa-26jul30-t0.5 |
| Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 be above 1.0%? | 2¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q2-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26sep08-t1.0 |
| 3.0–4.0% | 2¢ | — | $74K | polymarket | /markets/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026-3040-polymarket-0x51cd99a4fd1b0ba0fa46548b3ef82f52a765b0caea8a7053b6dccef6507c75e5 |
| 9.0%+ | 0¢ | — | $92K | polymarket | /markets/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026-90-polymarket-0x827e8d5590195f18458406b7a5a38bf53234eff69cbb5a33fe4a4deee63162e0 |
| 1.0–2.0% | 0¢ | — | $74K | polymarket | /markets/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026-1020-polymarket-0x7589dc4cadb0ed46582679966f6bc88348306afc811065a7410630c8412df40f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%? | Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%? | Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 93 | 90 | 82 |
| 2026-07-10 | 84 | 75 | 63 |
| 2026-07-17 | 15 | 14 | 38 |
| 2026-07-22 | 14 | 14 | 34 |
| 2026-07-23 | 21 | 21 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-17 · Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%? −70pp 85→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-17 · Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%? −62pp 76→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-17 · Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%? −37pp 48→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-17 · Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%? −26pp 64→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%? −21pp 31→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

There is currently no direct prediction market data available for China's full-year 2026 GDP growth rate. However, Chinese equities are showing weakness, with major ETFs such as FXI, MCHI, and KWEB declining between 0.6% and 2.2% today, suggesting investor caution regarding economic growth prospects.

### Key factors

- Lack of direct GDP prediction markets
- FXI down 0.61%
- MCHI down 0.79%
- KWEB down 2.18%
- Broad emerging market volatility

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-gdp-growth-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=china-gdp-growth-2026
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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