# China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026 — 4.6-4.9%

> 4.6-4.9% leads at 55%, runner-up 31% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-gdp-growth-yy-q2
Updated: 2026-05-25T00:20:13.310Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-16

## Headline

- Leader: 4.6-4.9% at 55%
- Runner-up: 4.9-5.2% at 31%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $672

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6-4.9% | 55¢ | +1pp | $609 | polymarket | /markets/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026-46-49-polymarket-0x800be7611c7efcdf5827c049e0baac8b6047b506af412e283dbac9ce7e202560 |
| 4.9-5.2% | 31¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026-49-52-polymarket-0x4af115cc5eadfbaa831523a17f297842011e6ba4175fc194b6d1e5e862193077 |
| 4.3-4.6% | 7¢ | −2pp | $63 | polymarket | /markets/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026-43-46-polymarket-0x7ccef198fac90ac8a29aed052fc8c5c08b16bff84b3b4ded112248a9d8f885c2 |
| 5.2-5.5% | 7¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026-52-55-polymarket-0x339ef2e6999b5fb8d818bc46a33cb05052e232c4f98121b4977a66a5ac4bda52 |
| <4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q2-2026-40-polymarket-0x6887c26b460f1a92154f3a69c728087738a267917f5e6de248d980d13b799665 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.6-4.9% | 4.9-5.2% | 4.3-4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | — | 39 | 8 |
| 2026-05-11 | 56 | 33 | 8 |
| 2026-05-18 | 52 | 32 | 6 |
| 2026-05-24 | 55 | 33 | 6 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-18 · 4.6-4.9% −5pp 57→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-19 · 4.6-4.9% −3pp 52→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-20 · 4.6-4.9% +3pp 49→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-18 · 4.3-4.6% −3pp 9→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-19 · 5.2-5.5% −3pp 12→9¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-gdp-growth-yy-q2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=china-gdp-growth-yy-q2
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.