# Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027

> Closed. Last odds frozen 20 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-invade-taiwan-december-31
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 14¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027-polymarket-0xe6d5e5da83874cd82c9b651a8a5d4fc541a800a295fb62e85124b4f5a04a4b7d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 17 |
| 2026-06-14 | 16 |
| 2026-06-16 | 16 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan within the next 20 months. The 17% figure suggests markets view an invasion as unlikely but not negligible. Military escalation risks, geopolitical tensions, and cross-strait stability are the primary drivers of this probability. The current level reflects a period of relative calm compared to 2024-2025, though structural factors including Taiwan's strategic importance and military modernization efforts continue to shape assessments. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include changes in U.S.-China relations, Taiwan's defense capabilities, or any military incidents in the Taiwan Strait. No single scheduled event determines resolution, but significant policy shifts or military posturing by either side would likely move markets substantially.

### Key factors

- U.S. military commitment to Taiwan's defense and the current state of U.S.-China diplomatic relations
- Taiwan's defensive military capabilities and the timeline for completing weapons systems deliveries
- Recent military exercises or incidents in the Taiwan Strait and frequency of Chinese military activity near Taiwan
- China's domestic economic conditions and military readiness compared to 2024-2025 assessments
- Official statements from Chinese, American, and Taiwanese leadership regarding military intentions or deterrence strategies

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-invade-taiwan-december-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=china-invade-taiwan-december-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

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