# Will China invade Taiwan?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 11 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-taiwan
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.212Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 7% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $197K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 6¢ | +1pp | $184K | polymarket | /markets/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | 3¢ | +1pp | $12K | polymarket | /markets/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x5ca616aaa0e1e5df6c38439f8bee4b96bacfe32f8f39cb2f1604c0196548662f |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 11¢ | +1pp | $919 | polymarket | /markets/china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-2027-polymarket-0x4c80df6f557bb0b9de08c0301ebdce500dd9bdc58400d9269fb8fab1709ed584 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 24¢ | +3pp | $328 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-4-warni-kalshi-kxtaiwanlvl4-28jan01 |
| Between 10% and 19.99% | 82¢ | −1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-china-imports-be-between-1-kalshi-kxtariffrateprc-26jul01-14 |
| By 2030 | 20¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-overtake-us-gdp-by-2030-by-2030-kalshi-chinausgdp-30 |
| Between 30% and 39.99% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-china-imports-be-between-3-kalshi-kxtariffrateprc-26jul01-34 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-4-warni-kalshi-kxtaiwanlvl4-27jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-4-warni-kalshi-kxtaiwanlvl4-29jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-4-warni-kalshi-kxtaiwanlvl4-30jan01 |
| Below 10% | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-china-imports-be-below-10-kalshi-kxtariffrateprc-26jul01-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 27 |
| 2026-06-01 | 27 |
| 2026-06-08 | 45 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Below 10% −9pp 22→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Between 10% and 19.99% +6pp 71→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Before Jan 1, 2029 −6pp 44→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Before Jan 1, 2028 −4pp 30→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Before Jan 1, 2028 −4pp 26→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/china-taiwan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=china-taiwan
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.