# Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2030 leads at 72%, runner-up 54% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 55 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chinaeuv-30
Updated: 2026-07-24T03:20:50.910Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2030 at 72%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2029 at 54%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 72¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-obtains-or-develops-a-functional-extrem-kalshi-kxchinaeuv-30-30jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-obtains-or-develops-a-functional-extrem-kalshi-kxchinaeuv-30-29jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-obtains-or-develops-a-functional-extrem-kalshi-kxchinaeuv-30-28jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-obtains-or-develops-a-functional-extrem-kalshi-kxchinaeuv-30-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2030 | Before Jan 1, 2029 | Before Jan 1, 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 56 | 52 | 30 |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — | 31 |
| 2026-07-19 | 72 | 52 | 31 |
| 2026-07-20 | — | 53 | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 54 | 31 |
| 2026-07-22 | — | 55 | 30 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-19 · Before Jan 1, 2030 +16pp 56→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-19 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 71% likelihood that China will develop a functional EUV lithography machine capable of manufacturing semiconductors by January 2030, but only a 16% chance this occurs by end-2026. EUV lithography represents the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology; China currently lacks domestic capability and faces U.S. export controls on equipment. The timeline reflects uncertainty about both technical feasibility and geopolitical constraints. Key drivers include China's semiconductor R&D investments, ASML's monopoly on current commercial EUV systems, and whether Beijing can either independently develop the technology or acquire critical components despite restrictions. The gap between the 2027 contract (16¢) and 2030 contract (71¢) suggests markets view near-term breakthroughs as unlikely but believe meaningful progress becomes more probable with a 3-4 year window.

### Key factors

- China's existing EUV prototype status: whether demonstrated machines are truly functional or remain lab-stage development
- U.S. export control effectiveness: degree to which sanctions prevent China from acquiring foreign components, materials, or technical expertise
- Third-country access channels: availability of critical semiconductor manufacturing inputs from Netherlands, Japan, or other non-U.S. suppliers
- International verification of claims: how China would confirm operational capability to external observers given security sensitivity
- ASML's technological lead: whether competitors can feasibly close the gap or if the Dutch monopoly remains insurmountable within the timeframe

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chinaeuv-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chinaeuv-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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