# Chinese Super League

> Winner: Chengdu Rongcheng leads at 49%, runner-up 47% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chinese-super-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.897Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Chengdu Rongcheng at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Chongqing Tonglianglong at 47%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Chengdu Rongcheng | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-chengdu-rongcheng-polymarket-0xbf0b2d2b4ef3625734af0650b0bbb8ac0253e316dcdf87a27d3c3ea37769135e |
| Winner: Chongqing Tonglianglong | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-chongqing-tonglianglon-polymarket-0xb96efc0d80890a3a7f603126d2d49397036ebefa27588468e7b56891ddb30c87 |
| Winner: Yunnan Yukun | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-yunnan-yukun-polymarket-0xa73a66e29047cf2a667200c9c509f38f3e1fb82279f5356314eeabbdc736a86e |
| Winner: Shenzhen Peng City | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-shenzhen-peng-city-polymarket-0x6723a131751ea47d097fa3453e218c55f97f4551bc29501cc00aa3f0188b7c2f |
| Winner: Dalian Yingbo | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-dalian-yingbo-polymarket-0xab40bfa0c30a37481b530bf99db09d325ded5be251b3d21fa933f9d5bd5d4d5a |
| Winner: Liaoning Tieren | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-liaoning-tieren-polymarket-0xab76e2c87654f6dbd23da955542a6e6fce219098b03f2ae7c1d6d2d6d6226394 |
| Winner: Qingdao West Coast | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-qingdao-west-coast-polymarket-0x75c1b23a08f42ba00874263b7b55fc6fa50c69f95ae82208375c203c5b5ff181 |
| Winner: Zhejiang | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-zhejiang-polymarket-0xab04681c5f4f38768f9205a28416cd3cc664470fd98ed644719e9bd53f3c31a4 |
| Winner: Beijing Guoan | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-beijing-guoan-polymarket-0xe125d55266f054071d9aa1df764f230e479c7e0c798b690544f6682fc367267c |
| Winner: Henan | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-henan-polymarket-0x081d6c26cb6c6482a5a165669ddd4c56627f9e3ed20eb948dd7c42e98197aec6 |
| Winner: Shanghai Port | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-shanghai-port-polymarket-0x7e84bf52b4f7529c19afe4107d9248075373bcfec85236bd6da8ff113ed44c3a |
| Winner: Wuhan Three Towns | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-wuhan-three-towns-polymarket-0x35331d7ec44cd72953a029c530e6ebc43fbb855159f8900b501125edeb75ff9c |
| Winner: Shandong Taishan | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-shandong-taishan-polymarket-0x5f9f25b347a868796c68b379aab2630187914b889fb971e112fce01d9255a2fd |
| Winner: Qingdao Hainiu | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-qingdao-hainiu-polymarket-0x4ccd42b613f55497fe30bad785d73ddd221e73deb9bfe9e14f7d724dd4769449 |
| Winner: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-tianjin-jinmen-tiger-polymarket-0x8c5af9d0836437ee9e2be7ed3b8da477719d5dcfcd50448f5ee82a02494c4766 |
| Winner: Shanghai Shenhua | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chinese-super-league-winner-shanghai-shenhua-polymarket-0xd83981b6092e44c6a93ee624f68310ee04a073cfe04631398d05159d7d0809e7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Chengdu Rongcheng | Winner: Chongqing Tonglianglong | Winner: Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 53 | 48 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 54 | 47 | 46 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 | 48 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | 49 | — | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Chengdu Rongcheng −7pp 56→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Qingdao West Coast +4pp 44→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Chongqing Tonglianglong +3pp 45→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Wuhan Three Towns +3pp 45→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Qingdao Hainiu +3pp 43→46¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that a specific team wins the 2026 Chinese Super League championship, based on aggregated predictions from 16 different betting contracts. The current 56% leader suggests moderate confidence in one team's chances, though the runner-up at 48% indicates substantial uncertainty remains. Key drivers of this probability include each team's squad composition, recent performance trends, and managerial changes heading into the season. The league typically runs from March through November, with outcomes depending on injuries, transfers, and mid-season form fluctuations that cannot be predicted with certainty. Resolution occurs when the season concludes and a champion is officially crowned, which eliminates all remaining uncertainty about the final standings and playoff results.

### Key factors

- Current top three contenders (Henan, Wuhan Three Towns, Qingdao Hainiu) trade within a narrow 44–47¢ range on Polymarket, indicating prediction markets view them as near-equally competitive
- The 56% leading contract price exceeds Polymarket's Henan price (47¢), suggesting the market leader may be a team not explicitly listed in top contracts or reflects recent team news not yet reflected across all venues
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on visible Chinese Super League contracts indicates minimal recent price movement and lower market liquidity than similar sports betting products
- The 8-percentage-point gap between the leader (56%) and runner-up (48%) is narrower than typical winner-take-all markets, reflecting genuine competitive balance among final contenders
- Seasonal timing (current date May 3) places the league well into its campaign, meaning approximately half the season remains with significant variance still possible in standings

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chinese-super-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chinese-super-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.