Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0
Leader sits at 95% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 47.0
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 47.5
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
6 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 47.0?: Above 47.0
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T47.0
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0?: Above 52.0
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T52.0
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 51.0?: Above 51.0
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T51.0
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 50.5?: Above 50.5
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T50.5
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 50.0?: Above 50.0
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T50.0
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 49.5?: Above 49.5
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T49.5
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 49.0?: Above 49.0
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T49.0
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 48.5?: Above 48.5
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T48.5
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 48.0?: Above 48.0
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T48.0
Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 47.5?: Above 47.5
KXCHNBSPMI-26MAY30-T47.5
What moved the line
- May 21Above 48.5↑83pp5→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 18Above 47.0↑82pp16→98¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Above 49.0↑79pp6→85¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Above 47.0↓76pp98→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above 49.0↓76pp85→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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