# Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0

> Above 47.0 leads at 95%, runner-up 93% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 46 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chnbspmi
Updated: 2026-05-24T23:20:11.889Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 47.0 at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 47.5 at 93%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47.0 | 95¢ | +33pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t47.0 |
| Above 47.5 | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t47.5 |
| Above 48.0 | 91¢ | +44pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t48.0 |
| Above 48.5 | 88¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t48.5 |
| Above 49.0 | 81¢ | +71pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t49.0 |
| Above 49.5 | 61¢ | +52pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t49.5 |
| Above 50.0 | 41¢ | +34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t50.0 |
| Above 50.5 | 21¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t50.5 |
| Above 52.0 | 11¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t52.0 |
| Above 51.0 | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-for-may-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxchnbspmi-26may30-t51.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 47.0 | Above 47.5 | Above 48.0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 22 | 13 | 19 |
| 2026-05-15 | 52 | 34 | 40 |
| 2026-05-17 | 16 | — | 20 |
| 2026-05-18 | 98 | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | 95 | 93 | 48 |
| 2026-05-22 | 62 | 92 | — |
| 2026-05-23 | 95 | 93 | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Above 48.5 +83pp 5→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-18 · Above 47.0 +82pp 16→98¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Above 49.0 +79pp 6→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-20 · Above 47.0 −76pp 98→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Above 49.0 −76pp 85→9¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chnbspmi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chnbspmi
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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