# Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-06T12:50:43.636Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 69%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 51%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 69¢ | −1pp | $236 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x07f1918b7e44022505592d3732b0229a949e40fd941cc12611fbbc5dda397772 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xda368d7772cf6056ee008026bcab0ef79dda7a600213a99d9b1775fccacb516c |
| O/U 2.5 | 42¢ | −1pp | $290 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x34dea0c254706b6fd913c43aba8ca3870604d03bfc3204ecc5448139d08c204d |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x0bd1b66d6c20d6a4ca51efc943754df3f1717b13a7a5614133db0a559318c7f3 |
| Henan FC (-1.5) | 14¢ | +5pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xd9d7201e51a45b7af5b16027d8430b1cc07673b39c379e7387b6b803c660ab4c |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x7b11ba1c6d7a1ad6a5fc857f394a9204c76639bef32d4020c7eea8995283e46e |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | −1pp | $444 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x326ee5e648f50a90bb475152e9f0093b6c1560669b6ae789905e9d9aacdc214b |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x264488d77cede87bc46426356939e5763a5c3350f532966b91fa26a611477bf2 |
| Henan FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xd8a866caf15e14a79760ec11047673beef3c241b2f5fb4700ac132917ce6979b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 73 | 53 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 72 | 54 | 44 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) +16pp 14→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Henan FC (-1.5) +5pp 15→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · O/U 4.5 −4pp 24→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Henan FC (-1.5) −4pp 19→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · O/U 3.5 −3pp 27→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects market estimates that Chongqing Tonglianglong FC will win their Chinese Super League match against Henan FC. The probability sits in the lower-third range, suggesting bookmakers and traders view Henan as the slight favorite or expect a draw as the more likely outcome. Movement in this probability would depend on team form leading into the match—injuries to key players, recent performance streaks, or changes in head-to-head records could shift expectations. The match resolution itself will determine the outcome, though the exact date is not specified in available data. Liquidity across venues is moderate but concentrated, with most trading activity on Polymarket's direct head-to-head contract versus the broader "More Markets" pool.

### Key factors

- Chongqing's recent win-loss-draw record compared to Henan's form in the current season
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two clubs in Chinese Super League play
- Injury reports or roster changes for either squad in the days before the match
- Kalshi and Polymarket probability divergence of 1 percentage point suggests minimal disagreement between major venues
- Total contract volume of $327–$287 across top venues indicates moderate but not exceptional market interest in this fixture

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-markets

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