# Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC

> Chongqing Tonglianglong FC leads at 37%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:26.006Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC at 37%
- Runner-up: Henan FC at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $65

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | 37¢ | +2pp | $65 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-chongqing-t-polymarket-0x903ccc4370f7f20deb743e6ed853814a37e30aa6a33244bebb42306a222db6d5 |
| Henan FC | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-henan-fc-polymarket-0x87c7a1b36787f225016c845118acb4b447b7d77db2d91359c24a83a78301b306 |
| Draw (Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC) | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-draw-chongq-polymarket-0x4742f4c55280d1b9446d9ad575bf5ffed6c8e6e1c46b114867491f4f17409a7f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | Henan FC | Draw (Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | 32 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 | 35 | 30 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 | — | 31 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC −5pp 41→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Henan FC +3pp 32→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability suggests roughly a 1-in-3 chance that Chongqing Tonglianglong FC wins in an upcoming matchup against Henan FC. The 32% figure reflects aggregated predictions from multiple markets, with Polymarket slightly bullish on Chongqing (38¢) compared to Kalshi (33¢). The current level likely reflects base expectations about team strength, recent form, and home-field advantage. Uncertainty will resolve once the match is played—the primary catalyst is the scheduled game itself. Between now and kickoff, changes in betting probability would typically respond to team news (injuries, roster moves), recent performance streaks, or betting volume shifts that signal emerging consensus among traders.

### Key factors

- Chongqing is priced as a moderate underdog at 32%, implying Henan or a draw carries 68% implied probability
- Polymarket's Chongqing contract (38¢) exceeds Kalshi (33¢) by 5 percentage points, suggesting venue-specific trader disagreement on win odds
- Lower 24-hour volumes on most contracts ($0–$53) indicate thin market activity and potentially wider spreads, making prices less stable than high-volume venues
- O/U 2.5 goals market shows 44% probability, suggesting the match is expected to be relatively low-scoring if traded assumptions hold
- The specific scheduled match date will trigger resolution; any pre-match developments affecting team availability or conditions could move prices materially before that event

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc

## License

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