# Will Jean-Paul Bourgeois win Chopped Castaways

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 12 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/choppedcastaways
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.991Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 1?: Barry Owens | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barry-owens-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-ba-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-bar |
| Season 1?: Ara Zada | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ara-zada-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-ara-z-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-ara |
| Season 1?: Carrie Baird | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carrie-baird-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-c-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-car |
| Season 1?: Cate Meade | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cate-meade-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-cat-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-cat |
| Season 1?: Dwight Hudgins | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dwight-hudgins-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-dwi |
| Season 1?: Hannah Flora | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hannah-flora-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-h-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-han |
| Season 1?: James Peck | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-peck-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-jam-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-jam |
| Season 1?: Jean-Paul Bourgeois | 38¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jean-paul-bourgeois-win-chopped-castaways-sea-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-jea |
| Season 1?: Logan Sandoval | 4¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-logan-sandoval-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-log |
| Season 1?: Paulette Tejada | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paulette-tejada-win-chopped-castaways-season-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-pau |
| Season 1?: Stephen Kina | 4¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stephen-kina-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-s-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-ste |
| Season 1?: Sunny Moody | 3¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sunny-moody-win-chopped-castaways-season-1-su-kalshi-kxchoppedcastaways-26dec31-sun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 8 |
| 2026-05-01 | 11 |
| 2026-05-03 | 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | 5 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Season 1?: Stephen Kina −10pp 14→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Season 1?: Logan Sandoval −6pp 11→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Season 1?: Sunny Moody −5pp 8→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 10% probability indicates that Jean-Paul Bourgeois has a one-in-ten chance of winning the Chopin Castaways competition. Current estimates reflect limited public information about Bourgeois's competitive track record, skills, or likelihood relative to other contestants. The probability may adjust based on contestant announcements, revealed competition format details, or public performance records. Typical factors influencing such competitions include prior experience in similar events, demonstrated expertise relevant to the competition's challenges, and media coverage that reveals contestant qualifications. The main uncertainty driver is the pending official contestant roster announcement and any public information released about competitors' backgrounds. As the event date approaches, additional details about competition structure or participant profiles would likely shift market expectations.

### Key factors

- Official contestant roster announcement and public availability of competitor background information
- Demonstrated prior competition experience or relevant expertise of Bourgeois in the competition's domain
- Competition format and rule structure, which determine how individual skills translate to overall performance
- Market depth and liquidity of Bourgeois-specific contracts relative to general competition betting pools
- Any public performance data, social media presence, or media coverage that establishes relative contestant positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/choppedcastaways
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=choppedcastaways

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.