# Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 2.0%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chretail
Updated: 2026-05-19T01:20:46.904Z
Category: economy · Topic: china
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-18

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.5% at 89%
- Runner-up: Above 1.0% at 81%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $142

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.5% | 89¢ | −44pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-retail-sales-yoy-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchretail-26may17-t0.5 |
| Above 1.0% | 81¢ | −40pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-retail-sales-yoy-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchretail-26may17-t1.0 |
| Above 1.5% | 72¢ | +2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-retail-sales-yoy-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchretail-26may17-t1.5 |
| Above 3.0% | 21¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-retail-sales-yoy-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchretail-26may17-t3.0 |
| Above 3.5% | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-retail-sales-yoy-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchretail-26may17-t3.5 |
| Above 2.5% | 5¢ | −10pp | $127 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-retail-sales-yoy-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchretail-26may17-t2.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.5% | Above 1.0% | Above 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 30 | 51 | 18 |
| 2026-05-15 | 65 | 75 | 43 |
| 2026-05-16 | 86 | 83 | — |
| 2026-05-17 | 42 | 43 | 45 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chretail
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chretail
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.