# Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above 50.0B USD

> Above 10.0B USD leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chtradebal
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:51.010Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: Above 10.0B USD at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 20.0B USD at 97%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $707

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10.0B USD | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t10.0 |
| Above 20.0B USD | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t20.0 |
| Above 30.0B USD | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t30.0 |
| Above 40.0B USD | 88¢ | +3pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t40.0 |
| Above 50.0B USD | 80¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t50.0 |
| Above 60.0B USD | 63¢ | +5pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t60.0 |
| Above 70.0B USD | 51¢ | +2pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t70.0 |
| Above 80.0B USD | 43¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t80.0 |
| Above 90.0B USD | 36¢ | — | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t90.0 |
| Above 100.0B USD | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t100.0 |
| Above 110.0B USD | 16¢ | — | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t110.0 |
| Above 120.0B USD | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t120.0 |
| Above 130.0B USD | 7¢ | −4pp | $413 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t130.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 10.0B USD | Above 20.0B USD | Above 30.0B USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 95 | 95 | 94 |
| 2026-05-02 | 96 | — | 93 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 92 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Above 60.0B USD +5pp 63→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 130.0B USD −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 40.0B USD +3pp 88→91¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates roughly even odds that China's April 2026 trade surplus exceeded $50 billion. China's balance of trade fluctuates with global demand, commodity prices, and seasonal factors, particularly around Chinese New Year timing and spring manufacturing cycles. The current 53% probability reflects near-parity between scenarios where strong export orders push the surplus above the threshold versus those where import demand or currency effects reduce it below. The April trade data will be released in early May by China's customs authority, providing the definitive resolution. Key consideration: recent high-level diplomatic activity between U.S. and Chinese officials, reflected in Trump visit probabilities trading at 81-90 cents, could influence trade patterns through policy announcements or negotiations affecting tariff implementation and bilateral commerce flows.

### Key factors

- China's April 2026 customs trade data release date and actual surplus figure versus the $50B threshold
- Global manufacturing order volumes and shipping activity in March-April 2026, which determine export levels
- Commodity import prices and volume trends during the period, particularly for energy and raw materials
- Timing of Chinese New Year holiday effects on production and export shipments relative to April calendar
- Any tariff announcements or trade policy changes from U.S.-China negotiations that occurred before or during April

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chtradebal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chtradebal
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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