# Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner

> KaBuM! IDL leads at 39%, runner-up 22% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/circuito-desafiante-split-1-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.878Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: KaBuM! IDL at 39%
- Runner-up: Keyd Stars Academy at 22%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $191

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KaBuM! IDL | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/circuito-desafiante-2026-split-1-winner-kabum-idl-polymarket-0x33b0fa7114d6bf720305907e2c2b209d11b9815ae88e6859b7019fa2fb746cb6 |
| Keyd Stars Academy | 22¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/circuito-desafiante-2026-split-1-winner-keyd-stars-polymarket-0x85a26772c43ae7881af6928bcf93144f17e850a68cee16032ce5ed613ed04da0 |
| Estral Esports | 14¢ | −20pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/circuito-desafiante-2026-split-1-winner-estral-esp-polymarket-0xaf40ef629920fb7aadadc0ac339a582bc664c922f4a5019def5c907a6ce0d194 |
| paiN Gaming Academy | 12¢ | −2pp | $85 | polymarket | /markets/circuito-desafiante-2026-split-1-winner-pain-gamin-polymarket-0x104eeb4d86e0dbdac01199beb34062d718f7d57d4570f2aa4dac0331139051d7 |
| INTZ | 12¢ | −8pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/circuito-desafiante-2026-split-1-winner-intz-polymarket-0xe0bedb9284112c4ac729be4b6753eee2e00cbaea5dda2f7f0124eb611a22d7b8 |
| 7REX | 3¢ | +2pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/circuito-desafiante-2026-split-1-winner-7rex-polymarket-0x26ed226a99c7f68c15a6ae8a1a95ac5bd2542ef82d9763cff005e30c9e637135 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | KaBuM! IDL | Keyd Stars Academy | Estral Esports |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 66 | — | 47 |
| 2026-05-02 | 64 | — | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 37 |
| 2026-05-06 | 40 | 22 | 35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 40 | 27 | 15 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | 28 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 36 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · paiN Gaming Academy −35pp 36→1¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · paiN Gaming Academy +28pp 1→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · KaBuM! IDL −24pp 64→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Estral Esports −20pp 35→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · INTZ −19pp 39→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the aggregated probability that KaBuM! IDL will win the 2026 Split 1 championship in Circuito Desafiante, Brazil's secondary League of Legends league. The 30% probability reflects moderate confidence in KaBuM!'s competitive standing, though uncertainty remains substantial given the split is underway and multiple teams remain viable contenders. The current assessment likely depends on KaBuM!'s recent match performance, roster stability, and historical performance within Circuito Desafiante relative to competitors. The main catalyst for probability movement will be KaBuM!'s performance in remaining regular season matches and playoff advancement, with the split's conclusion in approximately June 2026 serving as the resolution event. Market depth appears limited, with only $60 in 24-hour volume on the KaBuM! contract, suggesting thin liquidity relative to CBLOL division markets.

### Key factors

- KaBuM!'s current win-loss record and recent match outcomes in Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1
- Roster composition and player performance metrics compared to other split contenders
- Historical performance of KaBuM! IDL in Circuito Desafiante tournaments and their typical competitive tier
- Market liquidity and trading volume on this contract ($60/24h) versus related LoL markets, indicating confidence or uncertainty among traders
- Playoff bracket structure and remaining schedule—how KaBuM!'s path to finals compares to competitors' paths

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/circuito-desafiante-split-1-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=circuito-desafiante-split-1-winner

## License

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