# Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team, Los Angeles C Pro Basketball Team, Los Angeles R Pro Football team, Los Angeles C Pro Football team, Los Angeles D Pro Baseball team, Los Angeles A Pro Baseball team, the Los Angeles Kings, and the Anaheim Ducks

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 12 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/citychamps
Updated: 2026-08-27T11:21:44.861Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/miami-pro-basketball-team-miami-pro-football-team-kalshi-kxcitychamps-mia30jul01hdmp-3 |
| At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships | 16¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/miami-pro-basketball-team-miami-pro-football-team-kalshi-kxcitychamps-mia30jul01hdmp-2 |
| At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/golden-state-pro-basketball-team-san-francisco-pro-kalshi-kxcitychamps-bay30jul01w4gs-1 |
| At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/golden-state-pro-basketball-team-san-francisco-pro-kalshi-kxcitychamps-bay30jul01w4gs-2 |
| At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-pro-basketball-team-chicago-pro-football-t-kalshi-kxcitychamps-chi30jul01bbcwb-1 |
| At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-pro-basketball-team-chicago-pro-football-t-kalshi-kxcitychamps-chi30jul01bbcwb-2 |
| At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-pro-basketball-team-chicago-pro-football-t-kalshi-kxcitychamps-chi30jul01bbcwb-3 |
| At least 4 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 4+ championships | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-pro-basketball-team-chicago-pro-football-t-kalshi-kxcitychamps-chi30jul01bbcwb-4 |
| At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/denver-pro-basketball-team-denver-pro-football-tea-kalshi-kxcitychamps-den30jul01nbra-1 |
| At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/denver-pro-basketball-team-denver-pro-football-tea-kalshi-kxcitychamps-den30jul01nbra-2 |
| At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships | 9¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/denver-pro-basketball-team-denver-pro-football-tea-kalshi-kxcitychamps-den30jul01nbra-3 |
| At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-l-pro-basketball-team-los-angeles-c-pr-kalshi-kxcitychamps-la30jul01lcrcdakd-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 31 |
| 2026-08-13 | 30 |
| 2026-08-20 | 32 |
| 2026-08-27 | 51 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships +9pp 7→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships +8pp 77→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships +5pp 1→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships +3pp 31→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects the likelihood that Los Angeles's eight major professional sports teams will collectively win at least one championship between June 2026 and July 2030. The metric aggregates outcomes across basketball, football, and baseball, making it sensitive to the competitive strength and injury status of multiple franchises simultaneously. The probability is driven primarily by the Los Angeles Lakers' roster composition and playoff trajectory, given basketball's outsized influence on multi-sport aggregates, and secondarily by the Dodgers' performance in baseball's postseason format. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the 2030 postseason results, though interim championship windows in the 2027-2029 seasons will incrementally clarify franchise competitiveness and injury resilience. Current market pricing suggests meaningful doubt about at least one title within this four-year window despite Los Angeles's large player base and resources.

### Key factors

- Lakers' current roster age and injury history relative to championship-contending timelines in NBA
- Dodgers' pitching depth and playoff sustainability in MLB's high-variance postseason format
- Combined impact of personnel changes, trades, and free agency across eight franchises before peak competitive windows
- Whether any of the three football or hockey franchises achieve sustained playoff seeding and deep runs
- Historical championship frequency for Los Angeles franchises in this era compared to market expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/citychamps
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=citychamps

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.