# Will Count Binface Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clacton2nd
Updated: 2026-07-28T19:20:49.006Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-13

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $159

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count Binface Party | 76¢ | −1pp | $159 | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-cl-kalshi-kxclacton2nd-clactonbyelection26sep01-2-bin |
| British Democratic Party | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-british-democratic-party-finish-2nd-in-the-20-kalshi-kxclacton2nd-clactonbyelection26sep01-2-bri |
| Reclaim Party | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-reclaim-party-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-clacton-kalshi-kxclacton2nd-clactonbyelection26sep01-2-rec |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 20 |
| 2026-07-13 | 66 |
| 2026-07-21 | 62 |
| 2026-07-28 | 41 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Count Binface Party +4pp 63→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Count Binface Party +4pp 70→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Count Binface Party +4pp 74→78¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This markets asks whether Count Binface Party will finish in second place in the 2026 Clacton by-election. At 12% probability, traders assess this as an unlikely but non-negligible outcome. The current estimate reflects uncertainty around several variables: the full candidate field has not yet solidified, voter preferences remain fluid ahead of formal campaigning, and Clacton's specific electoral dynamics are difficult to predict. Count Binface Party's novelty status and limited historical polling data in this constituency create wide confidence intervals. The main catalyst for resolution will be the actual by-election result once it occurs. Between now and voting day, any major polling releases, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in voter sentiment could materially alter expectations. The relatively high trading volume on the Count Binface contract (versus other fringe candidates) suggests moderate market interest despite the low baseline probability.

### Key factors

- Count Binface Party received 68¢ pricing versus 7¢ for Forward Party, the second-most-backed option, indicating the market views them as the stronger performer among non-traditional candidates
- By-election timing and formal candidate confirmation remain pending, leaving substantial uncertainty about final field composition and ballot prominence
- Historical polling and vote share data for Count Binface Party in Clacton specifically is minimal, making statistical forecasting difficult
- Second-place finishes typically go to mainstream opposition parties; fringe candidates reaching second would require unusually fragmented voting or organizational collapse of major contenders
- Trading volume of $1,659 in 24 hours on this contract is moderate relative to major political markets, suggesting professional uncertainty rather than consensus conviction

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clacton2nd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=clacton2nd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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