# Will Luke Worley finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clacton3rd
Updated: 2026-08-15T13:20:52.108Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-08-13

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim Party | 8¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-reclaim-party-finish-3rd-in-the-2026-clacton-kalshi-kxclacton3rd-clactonbyelection26sep01-3-rec |
| Social Democratic Party | 13¢ | +3pp | $362 | kalshi | /markets/will-social-democratic-party-finish-3rd-in-the-202-kalshi-kxclacton3rd-clactonbyelection26sep01-3-spd |
| Official Monster Raving Loony Party | 5¢ | +1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-official-monster-raving-loony-party-finish-3r-kalshi-kxclacton3rd-clactonbyelection26sep01-3-mon |
| British Democratic Party | 6¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-british-democratic-party-finish-3rd-in-the-20-kalshi-kxclacton3rd-clactonbyelection26sep01-3-bri |
| Count Binface Party | 7¢ | +5pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-count-binface-party-finish-3rd-in-the-2026-cl-kalshi-kxclacton3rd-clactonbyelection26sep01-3-bin |
| Ollie Granger | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ollie-granger-finish-3rd-in-the-2026-clacton-kalshi-kxclacton3rd-clactonbyelection26sep01-3-gra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | 9 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that Luke Worley finishes in third place in the 2026 Clacton by-election. At 10%, Worley trails other potential third-place finishers including Forward Party (19¢) and Count Binface Party (22¢), suggesting analysts view him as less likely than these alternatives to achieve the third position. The likelihood depends on how Clacton's electorate splits across candidates beyond the frontrunners, and whether Worley's specific appeal in this constituency translates to a strong third-place showing. The by-election itself will provide definitive resolution when votes are counted, making candidate momentum, local campaign effectiveness, and the broader fragmentation of the non-frontrunner vote the primary drivers of movement in this probability. Historical by-election results in similar constituencies can inform expectations about how concentrated or dispersed third-place finishes typically are.

### Key factors

- Forward Party and Count Binface Party are currently priced higher for third place, indicating market assessment that Worley faces competitive pressure from multiple alternative candidates
- Kalshi volume for the Worley contract ($218 in 24h) is moderate compared to Forward Party ($271), suggesting some trader interest but less conviction than in other outcomes
- The 10% probability implies roughly 1-in-10 odds, requiring Worley to substantially outperform multiple other candidates positioned as more likely third-place finishers
- By-election timing and candidate field composition remain critical unknown factors that would directly affect fragmentation and Worley's relative positioning
- Historical Clacton voting patterns and demographic alignment with Worley's political positioning would shape realistic performance expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clacton3rd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=clacton3rd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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