# Clarity Act signed into law in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 74% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clarity-act-signed-into-law
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.377Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 74% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | 74¢ | +2pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-polymarket-0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 58 |
| 2026-04-25 | 46 |
| 2026-05-02 | 65 |
| 2026-05-08 | 68 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? +11pp 54→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? +5pp 62→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? −3pp 65→62¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The Clarity Act probability of 29% reflects traders' assessment that legislation explicitly labeled as the 'Clarity Act' will be signed into law before the end of 2026. The 18-point gap between Polymarket (41%) and Kalshi (23%) suggests disagreement about either the bill's likelihood of passage or whether different pieces of legislation might satisfy the contract terms. The outcome depends primarily on whether Congress advances this specific bill through committee and floor votes, and whether it gains sufficient bipartisan or single-party support to reach the president's desk. Key dates include any scheduled committee hearings or floor votes in the remaining seven months of 2026. Traders should monitor legislative calendars and floor schedules to assess movement. The gap between venues may reflect different interpretations of which bills count as the 'Clarity Act' rather than fundamental disagreement on passage odds.

### Key factors

- No Clarity Act has yet been introduced in the 119th Congress with that explicit name; contracts may rely on naming or intent-matching criteria that differ between exchanges
- Congress has approximately 180 legislative days remaining in 2026; the bill would need to advance through committee and pass both chambers before year-end
- The 18-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi is unusually wide for the same outcome, suggesting contract term interpretation differences rather than efficient disagreement
- Recent executive action volume (tariff orders, presidential actions) shows legislative activity is occurring, but no specific Clarity Act movement has been publicly tracked
- Kalshi's higher-volume SAVE Act contract (23%, $51k 24h volume) trades substantially lower, indicating traders distinguish between different legislative vehicles

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clarity-act-signed-into-law
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=clarity-act-signed-into-law

## License

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