# When will Claude 5 be released?

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 15%, runner-up 14% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-5-release
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.419Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 15%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 14%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 15¢ | +1pp | $248 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-jan-1-2027-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-27jan01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 14¢ | +2pp | $260 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-dec-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 7¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-nov-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-oct-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-sep-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 62 | 60 | 52 |
| 2026-06-12 | 22 | 19 | 13 |
| 2026-06-18 | 15 | — | 12 |
| 2026-06-19 | 16 | 13 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 17 | 12 | 11 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18 | 14 | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-5-release
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=claude-5-release

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.