# Will Claude go down on __ days in April — 12+

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-go-down-days-april
Updated: 2026-06-14T11:20:53.385Z
Category: technology
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 84% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 84¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270401 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 85 |
| 2026-06-07 | 75 |
| 2026-06-13 | 81 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 40% probability that Claude (an AI system) will experience downtime on 12 or more days in April 2026. The estimate reflects aggregated trader views across two venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher than Kalshi at 44% versus 38%. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: historical frequency of outages for large AI systems and the specific operational resilience of Claude's infrastructure during the measured month. The market will resolve based on actual documented downtime events in April, making this a straightforward observable outcome. Traders appear modestly uncertain, suggesting either insufficient historical data on Claude's reliability, varied expectations about infrastructure stress during this period, or disagreement about what constitutes a qualifying downtime event.

### Key factors

- Claude's documented uptime statistics or outage frequency from prior months provide a baseline for April expectations
- The definition of 'down' in the contract terms—whether it includes partial service degradation, regional outages, or only complete unavailability
- April 2026 operational schedule and any planned maintenance windows that could count toward the 12-day threshold
- Comparable reliability metrics for competing AI services might indicate whether 12+ days is typical or anomalous for the industry
- Real-time monitoring data through April would directly inform whether the threshold is trending toward achievement or away from it

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-go-down-days-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=claude-go-down-days-april

## License

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