# Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 15%, runner-up 14% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-myth
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.835Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 15%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 14%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 15¢ | +1pp | $248 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-jan-1-2027-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-27jan01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 14¢ | +2pp | $260 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-dec-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 7¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-nov-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-oct-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-sep-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 62 | 60 | 52 |
| 2026-06-12 | 22 | 19 | 13 |
| 2026-06-18 | 15 | — | 12 |
| 2026-06-19 | 16 | 13 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 17 | 12 | 11 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18 | 14 | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects aggregated market expectations that Anthropic will announce its Mythos model release before November 1, 2026. The 56% level suggests traders view a release as somewhat more likely than not, though meaningful uncertainty remains. The main drivers are Anthropic's historical release cadence—the company announced Claude 3 in March 2024 and Claude 3.5 in October 2024—and competitive pressures from other AI labs. Upward pressure comes from technical capabilities likely already developed; downward pressure stems from potential safety reviews, deployment complexity, or strategic delays. Key upcoming events include any Anthropic announcements at major conferences through summer 2026 and the company's disclosed roadmap timelines. The resolution date is less than six months away, making this relatively near-term compared to broader AI development timelines.

### Key factors

- Anthropic's historical release pattern shows major model announcements approximately every 6-12 months; the last major release (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) occurred in October 2024
- Competitive dynamics with OpenAI, Google, and Meta releasing models on accelerating schedules could influence Anthropic's timing strategy
- Related market indicators show traders assign 76% probability to Anthropic's IPO before 2027, suggesting confidence in the company's near-term operational activity
- November 1 deadline is 5 months away, leaving limited time for announcement, training completion, and safety review cycles typical of major releases
- No official Anthropic announcement or leaked timeline has been widely reported as of May 2026, introducing uncertainty about actual development stage

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-myth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=claude-myth

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