# Claude Mythos released by…

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 7 contracts — refreshed 5 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-mythos-released
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:36:00.257Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-04-30

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 27¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/claude-5-released-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x562d8e6be61af9176d3ed95c775b56202e5e668d7dd703be7c875926f56efdbd |
| May 31, 2026 | 6¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/claude-5-released-by-may-31-2026-polymarket-0x6d4e3af4996807a673cb2678a7b5960bfd6dfa5c43b8556e23cdf094fb55d2b6 |
| December 31, 2026 | 92¢ | −2pp | $656 | polymarket | /markets/gpt-6-released-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x46c8159431f59839061bb4abe8795ff8c0ebf6b612451e303ebe7f34697f3f35 |
| June 30, 2026 | 6¢ | +2pp | $367 | polymarket | /markets/gpt-6-released-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0xecdf42488da999b04ab160c1ad7997249d4ef0facb283229455a9e9e44bf8210 |
| June 30 | 41¢ | −5pp | $130 | polymarket | /markets/kimi-k3-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0xd357984e8f297cddb0d877592b1ae67455c7f624a6123a98d636bdc76149ff5f |
| May 31 | 19¢ | −6pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/kimi-k3-released-by-may-31-polymarket-0x049136c0b43ffdeb87b809d86b1e7118385247c99b4f4ed2e5489e07658badfe |
| September 30, 2026 | 60¢ | −3pp | $16 | polymarket | /markets/gpt-6-released-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0xf82f84686ee2a25f5690430461413c4dc5a39dcea922a7c5f47d9d29418fbdb6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 58 |
| 2026-04-25 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · June 30 −18pp 41→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · December 31, 2026 +8pp 85→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · May 31 −6pp 17→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · June 30 −5pp 21→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · December 31, 2026 −3pp 93→90¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Claude will release a new major model version by the end of June 2026. The aggregate assessment combines multiple release-window contracts, with the June 30 deadline attracting higher trading volume than the earlier May 31 target, suggesting moderate confidence in a near-term release but uncertainty about exact timing. Two main forces shape this level: Anthropic's historical release cadence and public roadmap statements push expectations upward, while the specificity of date-based contracts and the concentration of probability mass on June 30 rather than May 31 suggests traders are pricing in typical delays. The primary resolution event will be Anthropic's official announcement of Claude 5 or subsequent version release, which would immediately clarify whether this timeline materializes.

### Key factors

- Volume concentration: June 30 Claude contract trades at 28¢ with $1,246 daily volume versus May 31 at 7¢ with $3,669 volume, indicating traders view June as more probable despite higher May trading activity
- Competing model timelines: Kimi K3 contracts show 42¢ probability for June 30 release, suggesting market expects multiple AI labs releasing major models in similar windows
- Contract structure: Existence of seven distinct contracts across different models and dates indicates granular uncertainty rather than consensus on any single timeline
- Historical release patterns: Anthropic's previous major release intervals provide empirical reference for expected cadence
- Public statements: Any recent Anthropic communications about release schedules or development progress would directly inform trader positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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