# Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-opus
Updated: 2026-07-25T07:20:51.496Z
Category: technology
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-14

## Headline

- Leader: Before Aug 14, 2026 at 95%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 27, 2026 at 93%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $64K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 14, 2026 | 95¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-next-claude-opus-model-befo-kalshi-kxclaude-opus-26aug14 |
| Before Jul 27, 2026 | 93¢ | −30pp | $47K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-next-claude-opus-model-befo-kalshi-kxclaude-opus-26jul27 |
| Before Jul 31, 2026 | 93¢ | −12pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-next-claude-opus-model-befo-kalshi-kxclaude-opus-26jul31 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Aug 14, 2026 | Before Jul 27, 2026 | Before Jul 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 84 | — | 79 |
| 2026-07-20 | 81 | — | 73 |
| 2026-07-22 | 81 | 30 | 80 |
| 2026-07-23 | 95 | 67 | 89 |
| 2026-07-24 | 91 | 37 | 77 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Before Jul 27, 2026 +37pp 30→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Before Jul 27, 2026 −30pp 67→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Before Aug 14, 2026 +14pp 81→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Before Jul 31, 2026 −12pp 89→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Before Jul 31, 2026 −11pp 84→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Market participants estimate an 89% probability that Anthropic will release the next Claude Opus model by August 14, 2026. The distribution across contracts spanning July 21 through August 14 reveals traders expect the announcement within the next 3-4 weeks, with heaviest concentration around late July. The current pricing reflects anticipation of an imminent release based on typical development cycles and competitive pressure, though the declining probability as dates move earlier (27% by July 21 vs. 89% by August 14) suggests meaningful uncertainty about the exact timing. The primary driver is Anthropic's historical release cadence and any public statements or hints about deployment schedules. A formal announcement or leaked information about launch timing would immediately clarify this uncertainty, while a mid-August deadline approach without news would gradually compress these probabilities downward.

### Key factors

- The steepest probability drop occurs between July 21 (27¢) and July 22 (58¢), indicating traders expect either imminent announcement or a mid-late-July window before meaningful delay becomes apparent
- Highest contract volume ($602 24h) concentrates on the July 22 deadline, suggesting this represents the modal expectation among active traders
- The 89% August 14 vs. 86% July 31 spread (only 3 points) implies traders assign roughly 3-6% cumulative probability to release occurring between August 1-14
- No scheduled Anthropic announcement date or public roadmap appears to anchor these probabilities, making the market reliant on typical industry release cycles and informal signals
- The multi-outcome contract structure across five specific dates allows traders to express precise timing beliefs rather than binary yes/no positions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-opus
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=claude-opus

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.