# Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026

> Before Nov 1, 2026 leads at 11%, runner-up 6% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-opus6
Updated: 2026-09-07T11:21:05.714Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 11%
- Runner-up: Before Sep 16, 2026 at 6%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $86

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 11¢ | +3pp | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-opus-6-before-nov-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxclaude-opus6-26nov01 |
| Before Sep 16, 2026 | 6¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-opus-6-before-sep-16-2026-b-kalshi-kxclaude-opus6-26sep16 |
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-opus-6-before-oct-16-2026-b-kalshi-kxclaude-opus6-26oct16 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Nov 1, 2026 | Before Sep 16, 2026 | Before Oct 16, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 12 | 6 | 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | 8 | — | 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | 8 | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | 11 | 51 | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 13 | 1 | 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | 14 | 2 | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 10 | 6 | 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | 8 | — | 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | 11 | — | — |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-31 · Before Sep 16, 2026 −50pp 51→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-02 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −4pp 14→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-02 · Before Oct 16, 2026 −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-04 · Before Oct 16, 2026 +4pp 1→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-02 · Before Sep 16, 2026 +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 13% probability reflects a low likelihood that Anthropic will release an Opus 6 model before September 1, 2026—roughly two and a half weeks from today. The low pricing reflects the tight timeframe combined with Anthropic's typical development cadence; Opus 5 has been their leading model for over a year, suggesting longer intervals between major releases. The probability would move significantly based on any official Anthropic announcement or credible reporting about an imminent Opus 6 launch. The main catalyst for resolution is whether Anthropic makes a public release or announcement by September 1st. If the date passes without release, markets would likely reprice toward later October or November deadlines, where contract prices currently range from 3% to 12%, suggesting most traders expect a later 2026 launch if one occurs at all.

### Key factors

- Anthropic has not announced or hinted at an Opus 6 release date; lack of pre-announcement communication historically precedes major releases by weeks
- The current timeframe (August 13 to September 1) is only 19 days, which is unusually short for a major model launch cycle in Anthropic's historical pattern
- Contract prices rise substantially for October and November deadlines (10-12%), indicating market consensus expects a later release, not early September
- Kalshi contract volumes are highest for the November and October 16 dates ($1,653 and $973 respectively), suggesting traders view those as more probable outcomes
- No credible news reports or industry indicators as of mid-August 2026 suggest an imminent Opus 6 announcement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/claude-opus6
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=claude-opus6

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.