# Clavicular sentenced to prison

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 1 contract — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clavicular-sentenced-to-prison
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:28.534Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clavicular sentenced to prison? | 13¢ | −7pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/clavicular-sentenced-to-prison-polymarket-0x9c9ec7845f2102afe45b0987351d9fc146e38ed523b55323c82bda4439451597 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | 12 |
| 2026-04-24 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17 |
| 2026-05-08 | 13 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Clavicular sentenced to prison? −7pp 20→13¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/clavicular-sentenced-to-prison
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=clavicular-sentenced-to-prison

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.