# Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 8 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/closestgovernor
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.313Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-i-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-az |
| Michigan | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-mi |
| Wisconsin | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wisconsin-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-wi |
| Georgia | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-i-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-ga |
| Nevada | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nevada-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-nv |
| Iowa | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-ia |
| New Hampshire | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-hampshire-have-the-smallest-margin-of-vic-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-nh |
| Ohio | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestgovernor-27jan20-oh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 3 |
| 2026-04-28 | 3 |
| 2026-05-01 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that Arizona's gubernatorial race will have the smallest margin of victory among all 2026 U.S. gubernatorial elections. At 9%, the market assigns this outcome low probability, suggesting analysts expect other states' races to be closer. Arizona's margin depends on the relative competitiveness of its governor's race compared to Iowa (currently favored at 11%), Ohio (6%), and other competitive states. The main drivers are candidate recruitment, state demographic trends, and national political momentum. The election itself on November 3, 2026, will resolve this uncertainty, but earlier polling and candidate announcements through the summer will materially shift expectations about whether Arizona remains competitive relative to other battleground states.

### Key factors

- Iowa is currently assigned higher probability (11%) of having the smallest margin, suggesting the market views it as more competitive than Arizona
- Related Arizona contracts show 15¢ odds on Republicans winning by 4+ points, indicating the market expects a decisive rather than narrow Republican victory
- The metric requires Arizona to have the absolute smallest margin among all 2026 gubernatorial races nationwide, not merely be competitive
- Polling data and candidate emergence in other swing states through mid-2026 will determine whether Arizona's race remains among the tightest nationally
- Election dynamics in Ohio and Iowa will directly impact Arizona's probability by determining which state's race ends up closest

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/closestgovernor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=closestgovernor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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