# Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 12 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/closestsenate
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:07.379Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $308

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 4¢ | +2pp | $279 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-i-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-fl |
| Texas | 17¢ | ±0 | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-tx |
| Maine | 5¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-maine-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-me |
| Alaska | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ak |
| Georgia | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-i-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ga |
| Iowa | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iowa-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ia |
| Michigan | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michigan-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-mi |
| Minnesota | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-mn |
| North Carolina | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-north-carolina-have-the-smallest-margin-of-vi-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-nc |
| Nebraska | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nebraska-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-ne |
| New Hampshire | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-hampshire-have-the-smallest-margin-of-vic-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-nh |
| Ohio | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ohio-have-the-smallest-margin-of-victory-in-2-kalshi-kxclosestsenate-27jan03-oh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 9 |
| 2026-05-25 | 7 |
| 2026-06-01 | 8 |
| 2026-06-08 | 4 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · New Hampshire −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction assesses the likelihood that Alaska's 2026 Senate race will have the smallest winning margin among all U.S. Senate contests that year. The 17% probability suggests markets view this as unlikely but plausible. Alaska's Senate elections have historically featured competitive races, but the current assessment reflects expectations that other states may produce even tighter contests. The probability would rise if polling shows Alaska's race tightening significantly or if races in other competitive states appear to be widening. It would fall if other states develop more competitive dynamics. The outcome will be determined once all 2026 Senate results are finalized in November, with the margin of victory calculated for each race to identify the smallest.

### Key factors

- Alaska's historical voting patterns and current partisan lean relative to other 2026 Senate battlegrounds
- Candidate quality and fundraising capacity in Alaska versus competitive races in other states like Nevada, Arizona, or Pennsylvania
- Turnout dynamics and voter enthusiasm in Alaska compared to simultaneous 2026 gubernatorial and House races nationally
- Current polling averages for Alaska's Senate race versus early indicators in other competitive Senate states
- Whether Alaska's race remains a two-person contest or faces third-party or write-in challenges that could affect margin calculations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/closestsenate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=closestsenate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.