# Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: América de Cali at 43%
- Runner-up: Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $364

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| América de Cali | 43¢ | — | $244 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-amrica-de-c-polymarket-0x434862ae5cd66453da2a5706c4b20c83a0e8ed9275af863bf21a8eee05dd9046 |
| Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali) | 30¢ | −3pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-draw-club-a-polymarket-0x3adc1594d86833eee4d93eab7d5bbcd5f451b9dbece4826dc45b124eefb75289 |
| Club Alianza Atlético | 28¢ | — | $75 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-club-alianz-polymarket-0xe3443c65e561a78519c60b94a5b3b8f2ae835b958bba55e22670c1fe938bfce3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | América de Cali | Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali) | Club Alianza Atlético |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | — | 30 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 57 | 27 | 19 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali) −3pp 30→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 25% probability reflects aggregated market expectations for Club Alianza Atlético's performance against América de Cali, a match in South American football. The 10-percentage-point gap between venues suggests different assessments of team form, head-to-head history, or injury status. Markets pricing this outcome rely on recent performance data, home-field advantage, and roster composition. The primary driver of probability changes would be confirmed lineup announcements or injury reports released before match day. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, typically determining whether the specified outcome occurred. Polymarket's higher pricing may reflect different weighting of recent form or betting patterns within that user base.

### Key factors

- Recent win-loss records and goal differential for both clubs in their respective leagues leading into the fixture
- Home-field advantage status and historical head-to-head results between the two teams
- Confirmed absences or returns of key players through official team announcements or injury reports
- Venue conditions and travel factors that could affect team performance
- Volume and pricing consistency across the 13 Polymarket and 7 Kalshi contracts, indicating confidence or uncertainty in the estimate

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.