# Club Alianza Atlético vs. CS Huancayo

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 19 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-alianza-atltico-vs-cs-huancayo
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:52.135Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 50% / Polymarket 28% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otakar Esports | 16¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-the-ucam-esports-club-vs-o-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ota |
| CA Lanús | 21¢ | — | $260 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-ca-lans-polymarket-0x4eec59e01470b72978c3eb8d56e7610e1e53db931b6fc627b1cd4f6c489c304b |
| UCAM Esports Club | 83¢ | +48pp | $207 | kalshi | /markets/will-ucam-esports-club-win-the-ucam-esports-club-v-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ucam |
| Club Alianza Atlético | 29¢ | — | $4 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-club-alianz-polymarket-0xe3443c65e561a78519c60b94a5b3b8f2ae835b958bba55e22670c1fe938bfce3 |
| América de Cali (-2.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x29a631a118c304d9cd4c919646fb54d45266be29a87088c2c62e2d6a2a6fe20d |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x5d229ce3aa57b88d33abcde3ae9544dec0dcc8631bb70ee879174824ce23d749 |
| América de Cali (-1.5) | 18¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x96b339448e2986f241a96c14108ee4882a3e471bd1e64e048d17a082d584c2ac |
| América de Cali | 40¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-amrica-de-c-polymarket-0x434862ae5cd66453da2a5706c4b20c83a0e8ed9275af863bf21a8eee05dd9046 |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x3f614366905f80462f462ae2015d4e9100b8814288110b459933faa0313d9432 |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xef168aefd79cbbda7b27be016b39d5e1c4c00b34492e99b88123be7ebd64e777 |
| O/U 3.5 | 21¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x80dc4f3600db75e1be65545303e7dcf8b6f91d734dc1daa124c381e2774aa83e |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x8233314001b038e0e888d37b20465004fc6edd2db9d6d8c4e3f49e6da1e5d919 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xfab9acba8faba56c1dd787262479842e2e72ae28d4c0884ed5c92b5ea94ea061 |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xf11ea279e98fe97d6a7db3b810eefbb096a00bb962710385f2c4592145284b49 |
| Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-draw-club-a-polymarket-0x3adc1594d86833eee4d93eab7d5bbcd5f451b9dbece4826dc45b124eefb75289 |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5) | 25¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5d63d2f688c2e4b13f5e7bd161cd631fb069fdb4b896d52314d980484ec8892c |
| Ismaily SC (-1.5) | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xaa1d2cf2e3fb0c19ffa4ed284b48d773535b110c5f32aebad7c9f6bab9136cde |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5) | 27¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x21ed5aba5907f2ff4e00718c5dd36c1a349116f982ae00f4e44f1eafb5d15e0d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 35 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · UCAM Esports Club +48pp 15→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · UCAM Esports Club +11pp 4→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Otakar Esports +8pp 5→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects market expectations for Club Alianza Atlético's performance in an upcoming match against CS Huancayo. The estimate sits between two venues with notably different assessments: Kalshi traders price the outcome at 44%, while Polymarket traders assess it at 30%, suggesting disagreement about underlying team strength or current form. The outcome will depend on team composition, recent performance records, and head-to-head history. Resolution occurs when the match concludes, likely within days to weeks based on typical scheduling for Peruvian football. The 14-percentage-point gap between venues indicates meaningful uncertainty that new information—such as injury reports, lineup confirmations, or recent match results—could shift significantly.

### Key factors

- Kalshi's 44% probability versus Polymarket's 30% reflects a 14-point venue divergence, suggesting traders disagree on the match's fundamental probability
- Polymarket's 17 contracts provide substantially higher trading volume and sample size than Kalshi's 3 contracts, potentially indicating different confidence levels in price discovery
- Recent performance data on both clubs' win rates, goal differentials, and head-to-head records would be primary drivers of whether this probability adjusts before match kickoff
- The listed top contracts span esports and other sports markets, indicating potential data feed issues or market segmentation that could affect accuracy of this specific football match
- Match timing and venue conditions remain unspecified in available contract data, limiting ability to assess whether current probability reflects favorable or unfavorable home-field factors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-alianza-atltico-vs-cs-huancayo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-alianza-atltico-vs-cs-huancayo

## License

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