# Club Alianza Lima vs. CD Moquegua - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 22 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-alianza-lima-vs-cd-moquegua-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:35:30.952Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 38¢ | −4pp | $553 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xf11ea279e98fe97d6a7db3b810eefbb096a00bb962710385f2c4592145284b49 |
| O/U 2.5 | 40¢ | −9pp | $332 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b |
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | −4pp | $99 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xfdd357904976eecb735dafdc4290a16944355e04fb579a734bc6b4a10cd399cb |
| América de Cali (-2.5) | 6¢ | +29pp | $74 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x29a631a118c304d9cd4c919646fb54d45266be29a87088c2c62e2d6a2a6fe20d |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | −5pp | $63 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xdd5582bfba78c459746737cc153c3e700125883fb2ad744915f0a37a374ea4ed |
| CD Tolima (-2.5) | 6¢ | +20pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xe39b53cc6e56ef3b794d56089bd9c423d93cd45ea17ab97da86fb771480be126 |
| Both Teams to Score | 46¢ | −17pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xfab9acba8faba56c1dd787262479842e2e72ae28d4c0884ed5c92b5ea94ea061 |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | −8pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xcc83d19bb81e566ab17d083cfe0197824ede59e29dc065407eecb5fc378ec4a4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 18¢ | −6pp | $34 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x80dc4f3600db75e1be65545303e7dcf8b6f91d734dc1daa124c381e2774aa83e |
| O/U 4.5 | 8¢ | +7pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xbb6532dcc365610777d9f19af2a256a8ad05cf7bc8dd28606aebebe8a1579186 |
| Club Nacional de Football (-1.5) | 8¢ | −4pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xa229d814c0cfd5d1b08fe3cb257ef751317a948c8282b05e9b5abbd46ef4a31e |
| América de Cali (-1.5) | 18¢ | +20pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x96b339448e2986f241a96c14108ee4882a3e471bd1e64e048d17a082d584c2ac |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) | 3¢ | +11pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xef168aefd79cbbda7b27be016b39d5e1c4c00b34492e99b88123be7ebd64e777 |
| O/U 4.5 | 7¢ | +4pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x5d229ce3aa57b88d33abcde3ae9544dec0dcc8631bb70ee879174824ce23d749 |
| Club Nacional de Football (-2.5) | 3¢ | +3pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xbb148bed811390380b0e78496c32b55114ad30d56a12ecc4a2ea600300b8bc47 |
| CD Tolima (-1.5) | 22¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x404209171166b118cf63d3e3f1f1a4cca653dcbd737f4286da40654005230d40 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x8233314001b038e0e888d37b20465004fc6edd2db9d6d8c4e3f49e6da1e5d919 |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5) | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x3f614366905f80462f462ae2015d4e9100b8814288110b459933faa0313d9432 |
| O/U 4.5 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xfa839bfa80a836a6c296f815ae3fc0ed3b02abdce339d5f2e47ea58744f75bad |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 29 |
| 2026-05-06 | 24 |
| 2026-05-07 | 26 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · América de Cali (-2.5) +29pp 5→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −27pp 34→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · CD Tolima (-2.5) +20pp 6→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · América de Cali (-1.5) +20pp 18→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) −19pp 23→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 25% chance that Club Alianza Lima vs. CD Moquegua generates additional betting markets beyond those currently available. The assessment rests on the liquidity and interest level typically generated by Peruvian football matches at this tier, with higher probabilities favoring matches between clubs with larger fan bases or higher competitive standing. The resolution depends on whether sportsbooks determine sufficient market demand warrants expanded offerings. Key drivers include the teams' current league position, historical betting volume for similar matchups, and timing relative to the Peruvian football season calendar. Most Peruvian domestic matches generate standard markets (moneyline, total goals), but additional markets like quarter-based betting or player props appear less frequently for lower-division or mid-table contests. The upcoming match date would represent the primary catalyst—if significant pre-game betting activity materializes, sportsbooks may respond by adding more market options.

### Key factors

- Current team standings and league position in Peru's professional football hierarchy affect market demand
- Historical betting volume and liquidity patterns for similar Peruvian domestic matchups
- Sportsbook decision thresholds for adding markets correlate with pre-game bet placement activity and customer interest
- Match scheduling within the Peruvian football calendar and proximity to major fixtures that might compete for betting attention
- Whether either club has significant recent performance swings or notable injury situations that drive bettor engagement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-alianza-lima-vs-cd-moquegua-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-alianza-lima-vs-cd-moquegua-more-markets

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