# Club Aurora vs. CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-aurora-vs-cd-san-antonio-bulo-bulo-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-04T11:50:09.775Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-29

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 34% / Polymarket 25% — 9pp spread
- 24h volume: $2.7M

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: Minnesota | 16¢ | +1pp | $1.1M | kalshi | /markets/game-1-minnesota-at-san-antonio-winner-minnesota-kalshi-kxnbagame-26may04minsas-min |
| Minnesota | 12¢ | +1pp | $438K | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-vs-san-antonio-2026-2nd-round-series-win-kalshi-kxnbaseries-26minsasr2-min |
| San Antonio | 21¢ | +2pp | $437K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-antonio-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-f-kalshi-kxnba-26-sas |
| Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio | 84¢ | −1pp | $172K | kalshi | /markets/game-1-minnesota-at-san-antonio-winner-san-antonio-kalshi-kxnbagame-26may04minsas-sas |
| San Antonio Spurs | 20¢ | +1pp | $138K | polymarket | /markets/2026-nba-champion-san-antonio-spurs-polymarket-0xb6b3d7a2037b3faa7e1306d741840d453432902d73cc9a146a035e40271eae73 |
| San Antonio wins by over 12.5 points | 51¢ | ±0 | $117K | kalshi | /markets/san-antonio-wins-by-over-125-points-san-antonio-wi-kalshi-kxnbaspread-26may04minsas-sas12 |
| San Antonio | 86¢ | +10pp | $99K | kalshi | /markets/minnesota-vs-san-antonio-2026-2nd-round-series-win-kalshi-kxnbaseries-26minsasr2-sas |
| San Antonio | 29¢ | +1pp | $34K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-antonio-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-w-kalshi-kxnbawest-26-sas |
| Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: Minnesota | 20¢ | +3pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/game-2-minnesota-at-san-antonio-winner-minnesota-kalshi-kxnbagame-26may06minsas-min |
| Minnesota at San Antonio: Total Points: Over 217.5 points scored | 49¢ | +12pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/game-1-minnesota-at-san-antonio-total-points-over-kalshi-kxnbatotal-26may04minsas-217 |
| San Antonio vs Philadelphia | 4¢ | −2pp | $28K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-vs-philadelphia-be-the-matchup-in-kalshi-kxteamsinnbaf-26-sasphi |
| San Antonio vs New York | 11¢ | +2pp | $27K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-vs-new-york-be-the-matchup-in-the-kalshi-kxteamsinnbaf-26-sasnyk |
| Oklahoma City vs San Antonio | 80¢ | ±0 | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-vs-san-antonio-be-the-matchup-i-kalshi-kxteamsinnbawf-26-okcsas |
| San Antonio at Minnesota Winner?: Minnesota | 32¢ | ±0 | $9K | kalshi | /markets/game-3-san-antonio-at-minnesota-winner-minnesota-kalshi-kxnbagame-26may08sasmin-min |
| SAS wins 4-0 | 22¢ | +1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-0-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas40 |
| SAS wins 4-2 | 15¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas42 |
| Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio | 78¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/game-2-minnesota-at-san-antonio-winner-san-antonio-kalshi-kxnbagame-26may06minsas-sas |
| San Antonio vs Detroit | 5¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-vs-detroit-be-the-matchup-in-the-kalshi-kxteamsinnbaf-26-sasdet |
| San Antonio vs Los Angeles L | 4¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-vs-los-angeles-l-be-the-matchup-i-kalshi-kxteamsinnbawf-26-saslal |
| Western Conference Champion : San Antonio Spurs | 29¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/nba-playoffs-western-conference-champion-san-anton-polymarket-0xe3e8574f967e628750dff67c641944a84da281ced40ffe7c76e42649e89a6887 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 24 |
| 2026-04-20 | 22 |
| 2026-04-27 | 20 |
| 2026-05-03 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Minnesota at San Antonio: Total Points: Over 217.5 points scored +12pp 35→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · San Antonio +10pp 80→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Oklahoma City vs San Antonio +10pp 74→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio +7pp 75→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Oklahoma City vs San Antonio +5pp 68→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 34% probability reflects market expectations that CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo will win an upcoming match, though trading activity is sparse outside a few contracts. The gap between Kalshi (25%) and Polymarket (37%) suggests disagreement about the team's chances, possibly reflecting different trader bases or confidence levels. The highest-volume contracts actually reference the San Antonio Spurs' NBA championship odds rather than the Bolivian club, indicating potential data labeling confusion. Resolution depends on the specific match outcome, which hasn't been publicly dated in available contracts. Liquidity remains low across most CD San Antonio contracts, meaning prices could shift substantially on new information or limited trading volume.

### Key factors

- Contract mislabeling confusion: top volume contracts reference NBA teams (San Antonio Spurs) rather than CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo, suggesting potential data integrity issues
- 12 percentage-point spread between venues indicates meaningful disagreement, with Polymarket pricing the team 48% higher than Kalshi
- Minimal liquidity on actual CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo match contracts ($81-$7 volumes) compared to NBA-related contracts (hundreds of thousands), raising questions about price reliability
- No clearly stated match date or opponent visible in contract descriptions, creating uncertainty about when resolution occurs
- Kalshi's lower pricing may reflect different market composition or information access versus Polymarket's higher assessment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-aurora-vs-cd-san-antonio-bulo-bulo-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-aurora-vs-cd-san-antonio-bulo-bulo-more-markets

## License

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