# Club Bolívar vs. CD Real Tomayapo - More Markets: CD Real Tomayapo (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-bolvar-vs-cd-real-tomayapo-more-markets-cd-real
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:35:30.952Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $535

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 40¢ | −9pp | $332 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b |
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | −4pp | $99 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xfdd357904976eecb735dafdc4290a16944355e04fb579a734bc6b4a10cd399cb |
| CD Tolima (-2.5) | 6¢ | +20pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xe39b53cc6e56ef3b794d56089bd9c423d93cd45ea17ab97da86fb771480be126 |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | −8pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xcc83d19bb81e566ab17d083cfe0197824ede59e29dc065407eecb5fc378ec4a4 |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5) | 23¢ | +8pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x21ed5aba5907f2ff4e00718c5dd36c1a349116f982ae00f4e44f1eafb5d15e0d |
| Club Nacional de Football (-2.5) | 3¢ | +3pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xbb148bed811390380b0e78496c32b55114ad30d56a12ecc4a2ea600300b8bc47 |
| O/U 4.5 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xfa839bfa80a836a6c296f815ae3fc0ed3b02abdce339d5f2e47ea58744f75bad |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5) | 8¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5d63d2f688c2e4b13f5e7bd161cd631fb069fdb4b896d52314d980484ec8892c |
| CD Tolima (-1.5) | 22¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x404209171166b118cf63d3e3f1f1a4cca653dcbd737f4286da40654005230d40 |
| O/U 1.5 | 66¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x491b922a9ca612e784c2bc1d6719fdbb5a2e2123c8aa34577c74360e9fdfd453 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 35 |
| 2026-05-06 | 29 |
| 2026-05-07 | 31 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5) −30pp 37→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −27pp 34→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · CD Tolima (-2.5) +20pp 6→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 −19pp 65→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CD Tolima (-2.5) −17pp 23→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that CD Real Tomayapo will win by at least 2 goals against Club Bolívar. At 29%, the market implies roughly a 1-in-3.4 chance of this outcome. The probability is shaped primarily by recent team form and head-to-head records between these Bolivian league competitors. Club Bolívar's historical advantage and current standing are likely weighing against Tomayapo's prospects for a decisive victory. The match result itself will provide complete resolution, as the final scoreline will definitively settle whether Tomayapo achieves a margin of 2+ goals. Changes to this probability before kickoff would typically reflect lineup news, injury updates, or late-breaking information about either team's readiness.

### Key factors

- Club Bolívar's position and win rate in the current Bolivian league season relative to Tomayapo's recent form
- Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these teams, particularly instances of 2+ goal margins
- Lineup availability and injury status for key attacking or defensive players on either squad
- Home or away advantage factor and venue record for CD Real Tomayapo specifically in decisive-margin matches
- Recent goal differential trends for both teams in their last 5-10 competitive matches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-bolvar-vs-cd-real-tomayapo-more-markets-cd-real

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