# Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José

> Club Guabirá leads at 56%, runner-up 22% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-guabir-vs-gv-cd-san-jos
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:11.830Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: Club Guabirá at 56%
- Runner-up: Draw (Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José) at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Guabirá | 56¢ | ±0 | $9 | polymarket | /markets/club-guabir-vs-gv-cd-san-jos-club-guabir-polymarket-0x36e52d19b387f30751b55d835363fec3f9270111fb2ce830f6aa5639c95817f3 |
| Draw (Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José) | 22¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-guabir-vs-gv-cd-san-jos-draw-club-guabir-vs-g-polymarket-0x4c984b32b90ea1345dae5a08b9f2d53b69bd28cf368c3398c93d005c40d18d52 |
| GV CD San José | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-guabir-vs-gv-cd-san-jos-gv-cd-san-jos-polymarket-0xf6f08458bef68e5d7c22b5665d4a3377c9960c8efb205994ca6866030821db99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Club Guabirá | Draw (Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José) | GV CD San José |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 52 | 32 | 28 |
| 2026-05-07 | 53 | 25 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 55 | 23 | 24 |
| 2026-05-09 | 55 | — | 24 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Club Guabirá vs. GV CD San José) −7pp 32→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Club Guabirá will win an upcoming match against GV CD San José, with a 50% chance assigned to a Guabirá victory, 35% to a draw, and the remainder to a San José win. The market pricing suggests relatively balanced competitive positioning between the teams, though Guabirá holds a slight edge. Key drivers of the current level likely include recent form, head-to-head history, home-field advantage if applicable, and squad composition or injury status. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the match itself; the outcome will determine which outcome contract settles at full value. Trading volume has been zero in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited recent market activity or confidence reassessment. The gap between the leading outcome (50%) and the draw probability (35%) indicates some market conviction toward a decisive result rather than a stalemate.

### Key factors

- Club Guabirá is priced at 50%, indicating marginal favorite status rather than strong consensus; San José's implied win probability is approximately 15% based on remaining contract value
- Draw probability of 35% reflects meaningful expectation of a stalemate outcome, competing with the outright win scenarios
- Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours suggests stable pricing or reduced market interest rather than active repricing
- The match date and venue (home or away for each team) would directly influence the split between Guabirá favorites and draw probability
- Recent league performance, goal differential, and defensive records of both teams would explain whether the 50-35 split reflects actual quality gap or market overconfidence in either team

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-guabir-vs-gv-cd-san-jos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-guabir-vs-gv-cd-san-jos

## License

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