# Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-markets-ou
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:35:47.035Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 75%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 56%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 75¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2900cda63ccf8446260c73cf1b9df5856807e372da1671c801a15d5a47f9928a |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x14b9f0b75de481288e5696ef8208314306908fed4822f4be97d648c96bb28346 |
| O/U 2.5 | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2b4c203ee2416f623ef5a437c78f209eb46f9098b7f83d71398fe0a77697150c |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xf89db8c4101101525d3148e7e47b1f40ef3ddbcc210752d9ab4e54aa7dbeaff8 |
| Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5) | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xc0f87e41146ade8ca73fa35afe69f2f7ad1d7776144a3bc83223d216800e3cf8 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $21 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x3dd944ec7d753f64394be1d81d7d6847f361d7994eb9e1ac4737e97daafdaba5 |
| Caracas FC (-1.5) | 13¢ | −28pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x3ac6cbc94da39619fd7200b4e617781d5606050eadcf700c4b4158de539ccb5b |
| Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) | 13¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x378f7bb17664bc82a0bd26b44c81d55ee6768163a8ac2315ec6fd13548fb5bbb |
| Caracas FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x757589e8106cd811104f85abbf6ebfcde58ace08e7f6a1e30afa86d26f274a25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 76 | 56 | 28 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Caracas FC (-1.5) −28pp 28→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) −21pp 21→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Caracas FC (-2.5) −21pp 21→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) +9pp 12→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Caracas FC (-2.5) +9pp 12→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 28% probability indicates that markets assess a less-than-one-in-four chance that this match between Club Independiente Petrolero and Caracas FC will see four or more total goals. The low probability reflects relatively subdued expectations for scoring volume. Market pricing across related contracts shows expectations for moderate goal output: the O/U 2.5 sits at 50%, suggesting roughly equal likelihood of fewer than three goals versus three or more. The O/U 1.5 at 76% indicates markets lean toward low-scoring outcomes. Resolution depends entirely on match execution on the scheduled game date; factors include each team's current form, defensive strength, attacking capability, and head-to-head history. Live performance during the match—early goals, tactical adjustments, and player availability—will determine the final outcome.

### Key factors

- O/U 2.5 probability at 50% indicates market uncertainty about baseline scoring, making O/U 3.5 contingent on above-median offensive production
- O/U 1.5 at 76% suggests markets price-in roughly 3-in-4 likelihood of two or fewer goals, structurally constraining three-plus goal scenarios
- Club Independiente Petrolero priced at 12¢ on spread (-2.5) and Caracas at 20¢ on spread (-1.5) indicate neither team is heavily favored for decisive wins that generate higher goal totals
- Both Teams to Score at 55¢shows near-coin-flip expectations for both teams scoring; high-scoring games typically require multiple goals from leading teams
- Zero trading volume across related contracts in past 24 hours suggests limited recent market activity and potential illiquidity affecting price precision

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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