# Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T00:50:58.911Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 75%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 56%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 75¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2900cda63ccf8446260c73cf1b9df5856807e372da1671c801a15d5a47f9928a |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x14b9f0b75de481288e5696ef8208314306908fed4822f4be97d648c96bb28346 |
| O/U 2.5 | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2b4c203ee2416f623ef5a437c78f209eb46f9098b7f83d71398fe0a77697150c |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xf89db8c4101101525d3148e7e47b1f40ef3ddbcc210752d9ab4e54aa7dbeaff8 |
| Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5) | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xc0f87e41146ade8ca73fa35afe69f2f7ad1d7776144a3bc83223d216800e3cf8 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $21 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x3dd944ec7d753f64394be1d81d7d6847f361d7994eb9e1ac4737e97daafdaba5 |
| Caracas FC (-1.5) | 13¢ | −28pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x3ac6cbc94da39619fd7200b4e617781d5606050eadcf700c4b4158de539ccb5b |
| Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) | 13¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x378f7bb17664bc82a0bd26b44c81d55ee6768163a8ac2315ec6fd13548fb5bbb |
| Caracas FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x757589e8106cd811104f85abbf6ebfcde58ace08e7f6a1e30afa86d26f274a25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 76 | 56 | 28 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Caracas FC (-1.5) −28pp 28→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) −21pp 21→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Caracas FC (-2.5) −21pp 21→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) +9pp 12→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Caracas FC (-2.5) +9pp 12→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 28% probability reflects market expectations for a specific outcome in an upcoming Club Independiente Petrolero versus Caracas FC match. The related contracts suggest relatively low scoring is priced in, with over 1.5 goals trading at 76 cents while over 2.5 goals sits at 50 cents, indicating uncertainty between low-scoring and moderate-scoring scenarios. The extremely low volume across all contracts ($0 24h) and thin pricing on directional spreads—particularly Petrolero at -2.5 (12 cents)—suggest limited market participation and potentially outdated odds. Resolution depends on the match outcome itself, though without a specified date in available data, the timing remains unclear. Factors like recent team form, head-to-head history, and injury status would typically influence how these probabilities reallocate as match day approaches.

### Key factors

- All contracts show zero 24-hour trading volume, indicating minimal recent market activity and potentially stale price discovery
- Over 1.5 goals is priced significantly higher (76%) than over 2.5 goals (50%), suggesting markets expect a low-to-moderate scoring outcome rather than a high-scoring match
- Club Independiente Petrolero spread at 12 cents versus Caracas FC at 20 cents indicates very little confidence in either team winning decisively
- Both teams to score contract at 55% reflects genuine uncertainty about whether both offenses will find the net
- The disparity between different goal-total markets suggests potential arbitrage opportunities if match conditions or team news changes materially

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-markets

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