# Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC

> Club Independiente Petrolero leads at 38%, runner-up 34% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:20:51.843Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Club Independiente Petrolero at 38%
- Runner-up: Caracas FC at 34%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Independiente Petrolero | 38¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-club-in-polymarket-0xdbb8be9423d446d15d9166f33a46973746e78cbc3df63eeeecf5cce044a8cf08 |
| Caracas FC | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-caracas-polymarket-0xcdfe02246fe3bb6c482a787b20a852a887381e17742c064ffbc987e49e51cef4 |
| Draw (Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC) | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-draw-cl-polymarket-0x4a30dec701277cbd686436faa850b46055cc5ef076f8e1c13b513c990c381f0a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Club Independiente Petrolero | Caracas FC | Draw (Club Independiente Petrolero vs. Caracas FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 | 36 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | 36 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 33% probability reflects the chance that Club Independiente Petrolero will win against Caracas FC in an upcoming match. The estimate sits between Kalshi's 30% and Polymarket's 34%, with a modest 4 percentage point spread suggesting moderate consensus. Petrolero's probability is shaped by team form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage if applicable. The primary driver of movement would be recent performance data or lineup announcements closer to match day. The contract "Both Teams to Score" trading at 55% indicates the market expects a competitive, offensive-minded contest rather than a heavily favored outcome. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result, which will occur on the fixture date currently reflected in these prices.

### Key factors

- Recent win-loss records for both teams in their respective leagues or tournaments as of early May 2026
- Head-to-head historical results between Petrolero and Caracas in previous meetings
- Whether the match is played at Petrolero's home stadium or neutral ground, influencing home-field advantage
- Lineup availability and injury status for key players on either side
- Current league standings or tournament context that signals relative team strength in the competitive calendar

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc

## License

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