# Club The Strongest vs. Club ABB - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 13 contracts — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/club-strongest-vs-club-abb-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:50.954Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 31% / Polymarket 29% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otakar Esports | 6¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-the-ucam-esports-club-vs-o-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ota |
| UCAM Esports Club | 36¢ | −25pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ucam-esports-club-win-map-1-in-the-ucam-espor-kalshi-kxvalorantmap-26may031400ucamota-1-ucam |
| Otakar Esports | 6¢ | −10pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-map-1-in-the-ucam-esports-kalshi-kxvalorantmap-26may031400ucamota-1-ota |
| CA Lanús | 22¢ | — | $260 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-ca-lans-polymarket-0x4eec59e01470b72978c3eb8d56e7610e1e53db931b6fc627b1cd4f6c489c304b |
| UCAM Esports Club | 90¢ | +48pp | $251 | kalshi | /markets/will-ucam-esports-club-win-the-ucam-esports-club-v-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ucam |
| Otakar Esports | 11¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-map-2-in-the-ucam-esports-kalshi-kxvalorantmap-26may031400ucamota-2-ota |
| UCAM Esports Club | 36¢ | −25pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-ucam-esports-club-win-map-2-in-the-ucam-espor-kalshi-kxvalorantmap-26may031400ucamota-2-ucam |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x8d310ec105b3f4642adb9786bb127a418036e2645b4758ee0096b91c1e405d65 |
| Club Always Ready (-1.5) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-more-markets-club-alw-polymarket-0x2e9327d3fc06b834c10d798e26e1da1682fca58506cc66136cd0b86f9a62c801 |
| CD Tolima (-1.5) | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x404209171166b118cf63d3e3f1f1a4cca653dcbd737f4286da40654005230d40 |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x3c0f5f3aea6ef7547c858fb365c7b8075f59577d743448941442029191695d9f |
| O/U 4.5 | 21¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xfa839bfa80a836a6c296f815ae3fc0ed3b02abdce339d5f2e47ea58744f75bad |
| Club Nacional de Football (-1.5) | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xa229d814c0cfd5d1b08fe3cb257ef751317a948c8282b05e9b5abbd46ef4a31e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 29 |
| 2026-05-01 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · UCAM Esports Club +48pp 15→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · UCAM Esports Club −25pp 51→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · UCAM Esports Club −25pp 51→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · UCAM Esports Club −24pp 55→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · UCAM Esports Club −24pp 52→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 39% probability reflects market expectations that Club The Strongest will win their match against Club ABB. The estimate combines data from two venues with an 11-percentage-point spread, suggesting disagreement about the match outcome. The probability rests on assessments of team strength, recent performance, and head-to-head history. Several related markets show modest activity—both-teams-to-score sits at 51%, while goal-line bets cluster around 3.5–4.5 total goals. The match itself represents the primary catalyst that will resolve all uncertainty. Minimal trading volume across contracts ($0 24h) suggests limited recent market engagement, which may explain the venue divergence and leave probabilities vulnerable to new information about team form or lineups.

### Key factors

- Polymarket contracts price 11 percentage points higher than Kalshi equivalents, indicating structural disagreement between venues that could narrow post-match details or lineup announcements
- Both-teams-to-score probability at 51% suggests relatively balanced attacking threat, constraining spread predictions like The Strongest (-1.5) at 39%
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all listed contracts indicates illiquidity and potential stale pricing unresponsive to recent team developments
- Goal-total markets cluster between 3.5 and 4.5, reflecting consensus around moderate offensive output rather than blowout scenarios
- The match date and kickoff time remain the primary missing context needed to assess whether probabilities incorporate current team injury reports and form trends

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=club-strongest-vs-club-abb-more-markets

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