# Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4160 total restaurant count in Q2 2026

> Above 4100 leads at 96%, runner-up 94% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cmg
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.865Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-21

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4100 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 4120 at 94%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4100 | 96¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4100-kalshi-kxcmg-26julrest-4100 |
| Above 4120 | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4120-kalshi-kxcmg-26julrest-4120 |
| Above 4130 | 91¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4130-kalshi-kxcmg-26julrest-4130 |
| Above 4140 | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4140-kalshi-kxcmg-26julrest-4140 |
| Above 1% | 83¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-1-com-kalshi-kxcmg-26julcomp-1.0 |
| Above 4150 | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4150-kalshi-kxcmg-26julrest-4150 |
| Above 2% | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-2-com-kalshi-kxcmg-26julcomp-2.0 |
| Above 4160 | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4160-kalshi-kxcmg-26julrest-4160 |
| Above 3% | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-3-com-kalshi-kxcmg-26julcomp-3.0 |
| Above 4170 | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4170-kalshi-kxcmg-26julrest-4170 |
| Above 4% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-4-com-kalshi-kxcmg-26julcomp-4.0 |
| Above 5% | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-5-com-kalshi-kxcmg-26julcomp-5.0 |
| Above 6% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chipotle-mexican-grill-inc-report-above-6-com-kalshi-kxcmg-26julcomp-6.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4100 | Above 4120 | Above 4130 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 52 | 42 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 96 | 91 | 81 |
| 2026-06-11 | 97 | 86 | 67 |
| 2026-06-12 | 96 | — | — |
| 2026-06-21 | — | 93 | 91 |
| 2026-06-23 | — | 94 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above 4170 +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects a 95% market expectation that Chipotle will operate more than 4,160 restaurants by the end of Q2 2026. The high probability reflects Chipotle's established expansion track record and publicly guided growth targets, which markets have confidence the company will meet or exceed. The main downside risks would be accelerated store closures, unexpected capital constraints, or strategic shifts away from aggressive expansion. The key catalyst is Chipotle's Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in late July 2026, which will provide the actual restaurant count and settle this contract. Market attention to comparable sales growth contracts—currently priced much lower (15¢ for above 4% growth)—suggests investors are more uncertain about sales performance than unit count, indicating expansion may proceed even if same-store sales disappoint.

### Key factors

- Chipotle's recent quarterly reports showing consistent net unit growth trajectory and management guidance on store openings
- Q2 2026 comparable sales uncertainty, with markets pricing above 4% growth at only 15¢, suggesting expansion may not correlate with strong same-store performance
- Capital availability and labor cost pressures, which could constrain or accelerate build-out depending on cost environment and financing conditions
- Q2 2026 earnings release (expected late July 2026) will provide definitive restaurant count and resolve the contract
- Historical gap between unit growth and sales growth in recent quarters, indicating the market views these as partially independent outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cmg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cmg

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.