# Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion

> Below $300 billion leads at 84%, runner-up 74% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cnimport
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:07.092Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-04

## Headline

- Leader: Below $300 billion at 84%
- Runner-up: Below $280 billion at 74%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $300 billion | 84¢ | +49pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-imports-of-goods-from-china-for-2026-be-be-kalshi-kxcnimport-27feb04-t300 |
| Below $280 billion | 74¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-imports-of-goods-from-china-for-2026-be-be-kalshi-kxcnimport-27feb04-t280 |
| Below $260 billion | 51¢ | +50pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-imports-of-goods-from-china-for-2026-be-be-kalshi-kxcnimport-27feb04-t260 |
| Below $240 billion | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-imports-of-goods-from-china-for-2026-be-be-kalshi-kxcnimport-27feb04-t240 |
| Below $220 billion | 9¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-imports-of-goods-from-china-for-2026-be-be-kalshi-kxcnimport-27feb04-t220 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $300 billion | Below $280 billion | Below $260 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 35 | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-05-23 | — | 18 | 2 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 18 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 18 | 1 |
| 2026-05-29 | 84 | 25 | 51 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability estimates whether U.S. imports from China will fall below $300 billion during 2026, reflecting expectations about trade policy direction. The 33% probability suggests markets currently expect imports to remain above this threshold. Two primary factors influence this outcome: the tariff rate applied to Chinese goods (with contracts showing uncertainty between 10-30% rates on July 1st), which directly affects import costs and volumes, and the overall economic demand for Chinese goods in the U.S. market. The key catalyst is the tariff policy decision expected by mid-2026, as new or modified tariff rates would significantly impact pricing and import decisions. Additional uncertainty comes from potential trade negotiations or policy reversals that could expand or contract the bilateral trade relationship. Historical 2024 imports from China exceeded $400 billion, making a 25% reduction a substantial shift that would require either substantial tariff increases or demand contraction.

### Key factors

- Tariff rate on Chinese imports as of July 1, 2026 will directly affect import prices and volumes; current contracts show 65% probability of 10-19.99% rates versus 10% probability of 20-29.99% rates
- U.S. economic demand for goods in 2026 will influence import quantity regardless of tariff rates; GDP growth forecasts and consumer spending patterns are key variables
- Actual tariff policy implementation and any trade negotiations between now and mid-2026 will serve as primary resolution catalyst
- 2024 baseline imports from China exceeded $400 billion, meaning $300 billion threshold requires approximately 25% reduction from recent historical levels
- Alternative trade routes or supply chain shifts to other countries could reduce China-specific imports even without tariff changes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cnimport
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cnimport
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.