# CO-03 Republican Primary Winner

> Jeff Hurd leads at 97%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/co03-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:27.039Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Jeff Hurd at 97%
- Runner-up: Hope Scheppelman at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hurd | 97¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/co-03-republican-primary-winner-jeff-hurd-polymarket-0x6f3500bc43f816c814f6f520249a786e04097a0c4b4de901d9de9967cb0f3446 |
| Hope Scheppelman | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/co-03-republican-primary-winner-hope-scheppelman-polymarket-0xc9f79e812de78d8bf0f7d5e1f006afa055c865371c0de252ee6991db7a729237 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jeff Hurd | Hope Scheppelman |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 83 | 2 |
| 2026-04-25 | 98 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 97 | 3 |
| 2026-05-09 | 96 | 4 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the assessed likelihood that a Republican candidate will win the CO-03 congressional primary election. At 41%, the market indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting no single candidate has secured dominant support among likely GOP primary voters in this Colorado district. The current level likely reflects recent polling data, fundraising totals, and endorsements from established party figures. Movements in this probability would track with new primary polling, candidate campaign developments, debate performances, or shifts in voter sentiment closer to the election. The primary election itself, scheduled for June 2026, represents the key resolution event that will determine the outcome with certainty.

### Key factors

- Primary election date in June 2026 will provide definitive outcome; current probability reflects uncertainty among multiple viable candidates
- Recent polling showing candidate preference distribution among likely Republican primary voters in CO-03
- Fundraising and cash-on-hand totals for competing candidates indicating resource advantages
- Endorsements from state party leadership, incumbent officials, or national Republican figures
- Turnout model assumptions about which voter segments participate in the Republican primary

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/co03-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=co03-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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