# CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner

> Manny Rutinel leads at 81%, runner-up 19% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/co08-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.750Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Manny Rutinel at 81%
- Runner-up: Shannon Bird at 19%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $29

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Rutinel | 81¢ | +2pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/co-08-democratic-primary-winner-manny-rutinel-polymarket-0x1f5b9dd89471579b5eef1bbee88a966e50a843d7f79e8278a6426ddad1685b3b |
| Shannon Bird | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/co-08-democratic-primary-winner-shannon-bird-polymarket-0x892127ba72668ea5da29a1a21cd0e78210d54390dbd8cb564f4c960e48b6eaa4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Manny Rutinel | Shannon Bird |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 82 | 12 |
| 2026-04-24 | 88 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 80 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 81 | 20 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Manny Rutinel −8pp 88→80¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Shannon Bird +5pp 13→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Shannon Bird +3pp 18→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates the likelihood that one Democratic candidate will win the CO-08 House primary election. The current 49% level reflects uncertainty in a competitive race with multiple viable contenders. Primary outcomes typically hinge on candidate name recognition, grassroots organization, fundraising capacity, and voter turnout patterns in the district. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market, with the winner determined by vote totals. Key factors include whether the frontrunner maintains momentum through election day, how effectively competing candidates consolidate support, whether late-breaking endorsements shift voter preferences, and actual voter turnout among Democratic primary participants in the district.

### Key factors

- Frontrunner's cash-on-hand and spending pace relative to principal competitors
- Endorsements from district-level and state party figures, particularly in the weeks before voting
- Early voting patterns and internal polling data if publicly released by campaigns or media
- Whether competing candidates consolidate voters or remain fragmented across multiple candidates
- Voter turnout rate in the Democratic primary compared to historical baseline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/co08-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=co08-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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