# Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1

> Mike Vrabel leads at 78%, runner-up 12% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachondate
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:24.295Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-20

## Headline

- Leader: Mike Vrabel at 78%
- Runner-up: Josh McDaniels at 12%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel | 78¢ | +2pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-mvra |
| Josh McDaniels | 12¢ | ±0 | $245 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-jmcd |
| Thomas Brown | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-tbro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mike Vrabel | Josh McDaniels | Thomas Brown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 64 | 7 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 64 | 24 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 68 | 22 | 3 |
| 2026-05-03 | 77 | 13 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Mike Vrabel +8pp 68→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Josh McDaniels −8pp 22→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Mike Vrabel −7pp 71→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Mike Vrabel −7pp 76→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Mike Vrabel +6pp 69→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability reflects the likelihood that someone other than Mike Vrabel (currently priced at 77%) becomes the New England Patriots head coach by Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. The low probability suggests the market views Vrabel as the heavily favored candidate, though alternatives remain possible. The main factors keeping this probability elevated are uncertainties around Vrabel's final contract negotiations, potential late-stage changes in the team's organizational direction, and the possibility of unexpected candidate availability. The critical resolution point will be the official announcement of New England's head coach hire, which typically occurs in January or early February before the new season begins.

### Key factors

- Mike Vrabel's contract negotiations with the Patriots and whether he formally accepts or declines the position
- Emergence of unexpected coaching candidates becoming available due to playoff eliminations or NFL organizational changes
- New England's ownership or front office making a last-minute change in coaching direction or hiring preference
- The timeline of when the official announcement occurs relative to the start of Week 1 in September 2026
- Competitive bidding from other NFL teams that might acquire alternative candidates before the Patriots finalize their hire

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachondate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coachondate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.