# Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026

> Matt Quatraro leads at 51%, runner-up 32% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutmlb
Updated: 2026-07-23T22:20:51.246Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Matt Quatraro at 51%
- Runner-up: Joe Espada at 32%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Quatraro | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-mqua |
| Joe Espada | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-jesp |
| Dan Wilson | 28¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-dwil |
| Aaron Boone | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-aboo |
| A.J. Hinch | 15¢ | +5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-ahin |
| Derek Shelton | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-dshe |
| John Schneider | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-jsch |
| Craig Counsell | 12¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-ccou |
| Mark Kotsay | 12¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-mkot |
| Blake Butera | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-bbut |
| Craig Albernaz | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-calb |
| Clayton McCullough | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-cmcc |
| Craig Stammen | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-csta |
| Don Kelly | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-dkel |
| Kevin Cash | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-kcas |
| Kurt Suzuki | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-ksuz |
| Oliver Marmol | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-omar |
| Pat Murphy | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-pmur |
| Skip Schumaker | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-baseball-managers-will-be-out-before-dec-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlb-26dec01-ssch |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Matt Quatraro | Joe Espada | Dan Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 36 | 37 | 12 |
| 2026-07-08 | 36 | 32 | 7 |
| 2026-07-09 | 35 | 33 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 51 | 35 | 11 |
| 2026-07-22 | 51 | 32 | 28 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-19 · Kurt Suzuki −18pp 21→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-19 · Joe Espada −17pp 20→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-18 · Joe Espada −15pp 35→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Joe Espada +13pp 3→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Joe Espada +13pp 16→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that at least one Major League Baseball manager will be fired, resign, or otherwise depart before December 1, 2026—about 150 days from now. The 43% probability for A.J. Hinch reflects uncertainty around mid-season managerial changes, which typically occur when teams underperform or face organizational conflicts. The timing matters because we're currently in the 2026 regular season, so this period captures the remainder of the season through the playoffs and immediate offseason. The main drivers are current team performance relative to expectations, playoff positioning decisions, and any organizational instability. The biggest inflection point will be the trade deadline and subsequent playoff performance, which historically correlate with managerial changes.

### Key factors

- A.J. Hinch's Houston Astros performance through the trade deadline and playoff push—teams typically make managerial changes if postseason hopes fade or internal conflict emerges
- Year-to-date win-loss records and playoff probability for teams managed by the other candidates (Boone, Counsell, Butera, Albernaz) relative to organizational expectations
- Historical baseline: MLB averages roughly 1-2 mid-season managerial changes per season, making a ~43% probability for a single manager within 5 months realistic but not heavily favored
- Any reported front-office tensions, contract disputes, or public statements indicating job security concerns for listed managers
- Playoff qualification thresholds for each manager's team—teams eliminated from contention are more likely to make leadership changes before October

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutmlb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coachoutmlb

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.