# Will Aaron Boone be out before Sep 1, 2026

> Out before Nov 15, 2026 leads at 13%, runner-up 13% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutmlbdate-27nyy
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.220Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-24

## Headline

- Leader: Out before Nov 15, 2026 at 13%
- Runner-up: Out before Mar 24, 2027 at 13%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out before Nov 15, 2026 | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-boone-be-out-before-nov-15-2026-out-bef-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlbdate-27nyy-26nov15 |
| Out before Mar 24, 2027 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-boone-be-out-before-mar-24-2027-out-bef-kalshi-kxcoachoutmlbdate-27nyy-27mar24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Out before Nov 15, 2026 | Out before Mar 24, 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 12 | 16 |
| 2026-04-24 | 10 | 13 |
| 2026-04-26 | 10 | 13 |
| 2026-04-28 | 13 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract represents the probability that Aaron Boone will be fired or resign as New York Yankees manager before September 1, 2026. At 12%, the market assigns this outcome low odds, reflecting Boone's established position with the organization and typical managerial tenure. The probability is primarily driven by the Yankees' regular-season performance through mid-August, as a significant collapse or unprecedented dysfunction could trigger front-office action. There's a notable 19-percentage-point gap between venues, with Polymarket pricing the scenario at 30% versus Kalshi's 11%, suggesting disagreement over either Boone's job security or the organization's tolerance for underperformance. The main catalyst would be the team's win-loss record and playoff positioning by late August, which would determine whether ownership considers managerial change necessary.

### Key factors

- Yankees' winning percentage and playoff positioning as of August 2026, compared to historical standards for managerial dismissal mid-season
- Presence or absence of publicly reported front-office disputes, player conflicts, or media narratives questioning Boone's authority or competence
- Boone's contract terms and any buyout provisions that would affect owner willingness to make an in-season managerial change
- Comparison to recent precedent: when other established MLB managers were removed mid-season and what circumstances triggered those decisions
- Kalshi vs. Polymarket pricing discrepancy (11% vs. 30%), indicating either different interpretive models or one venue's potential mispricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutmlbdate-27nyy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coachoutmlbdate-27nyy

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