# Will Mike Brown be out before Jul 1, 2026

> Out before Oct 25, 2027 leads at 61%, runner-up 55% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutnbadate-27mbro
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.228Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-25

## Headline

- Leader: Out before Oct 25, 2027 at 61%
- Runner-up: Out before Jul 1, 2027 at 55%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $247

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out before Oct 25, 2027 | 61¢ | +59pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-brown-be-out-before-oct-25-2027-out-befo-kalshi-kxcoachoutnbadate-27mbro-27oct25 |
| Out before Jul 1, 2027 | 55¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-brown-be-out-before-jul-1-2027-out-befor-kalshi-kxcoachoutnbadate-27mbro-27jul01 |
| Out before Oct 25, 2026 | 18¢ | +6pp | $247 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-brown-be-out-before-oct-25-2026-out-befo-kalshi-kxcoachoutnbadate-27mbro-26oct25 |
| Out before Jul 1, 2026 | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-brown-be-out-before-jul-1-2026-out-befor-kalshi-kxcoachoutnbadate-27mbro-26jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Out before Oct 25, 2027 | Out before Jul 1, 2027 | Out before Oct 25, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 68 | 62 | 50 |
| 2026-04-28 | 69 | 63 | 51 |
| 2026-04-30 | 71 | 63 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 2 | 65 | 12 |
| 2026-05-06 | 61 | 54 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 18 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Out before Oct 25, 2027 −69pp 71→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Out before Oct 25, 2027 +59pp 2→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Out before Oct 25, 2026 −30pp 42→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Out before Jul 1, 2026 −17pp 25→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Out before Jul 1, 2027 −11pp 65→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 65% probability that Mike Brown will no longer be an NBA coach before July 1, 2026—roughly two months away. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Brown faces termination, resignation, or reassignment before that date. Key drivers include his current team's performance trajectory, front office stability, and typical timing of NBA coaching changes, which often occur in the off-season (June-July) rather than mid-season. The main resolution catalyst is the NBA off-season hiring cycle, which typically accelerates in June when teams make formal coaching decisions. Markets of this type also depend on whether Brown is currently under contract and facing performance pressure, or whether organizational changes might trigger earlier moves. The 65% level suggests meaningful doubt—substantial probability he remains in his position through June.

### Key factors

- Current team record, playoff seeding, and recent performance trends as of early May 2026
- Mike Brown's contract status, remaining guaranteed salary, and reported job security statements from team ownership or front office
- Historical timing data: NBA coaching changes overwhelmingly occur in June-July; mid-season departures are rare except for cause
- Any reported trade negotiations, front office turnover, or ownership changes at Brown's current organization
- Comparison to market pricing for other NBA coaches facing similar uncertainty, which may reveal whether 65% reflects consensus or outlier sentiment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutnbadate-27mbro
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coachoutnbadate-27mbro

## License

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