# Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026

> Sean McVay leads at 5%, runner-up 4% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutnfl
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.286Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Leader: Sean McVay at 5%
- Runner-up: Mike Vrabel at 4%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean McVay | 5¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-football-coaches-will-be-out-before-sep-kalshi-kxcoachoutnfl-26sep01-smcv |
| Mike Vrabel | 4¢ | ±0 | $13K | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-football-coaches-will-be-out-before-sep-kalshi-kxcoachoutnfl-26sep01-mvra |
| Matt LaFleur | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-pro-football-coaches-will-be-out-before-sep-kalshi-kxcoachoutnfl-26sep01-mlaf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Sean McVay | Mike Vrabel | Matt LaFleur |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 8 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-06-05 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 2026-06-09 | — | — | 5 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 6 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 6 | 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | 10 | — | 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | 4 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 6 | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Sean McVay +8pp 2→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Sean McVay −6pp 10→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 9% probability that at least one NFL head coach will be terminated or resign before September 1, 2026. Mike Vrabel leads the implied list at 9%, suggesting markets view mid-season coaching changes as uncommon but plausible within the next 3.5 months. The relatively low probability reflects that most coaching transitions occur in the offseason; coaches typically have contractual protections and job security during the active season. The main catalysts that would increase this probability include catastrophic team performance, significant player injuries forcing changes, or public controversies. Resolution will occur automatically as the September 1 deadline approaches, with any coaching departures triggering outcomes based on the specific coach involved.

### Key factors

- NFL coaches typically maintain positions through the season unless facing extreme circumstances such as 0-5+ records or severe locker room breakdown
- Contractual structures and guaranteed compensation make mid-season firings financially costly for franchises, reducing motivation for moves before offseason
- The timeframe encompasses the remainder of the 2025 regular season and preseason training camps, periods when operational stability is generally prioritized
- Mike Vrabel's elevated price relative to other coaches suggests market perception of either recent tension with ownership, team performance concerns, or higher baseline volatility in his situation
- Historical data on NFL mid-season coaching changes would show whether 9% falls within typical seasonal ranges or represents an unusual spike

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coachoutnfl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coachoutnfl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.