# Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -3%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 10 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cocacolapos
Updated: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-10-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 93 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 96 at 90%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 93 | 97¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t93 |
| Above 96 | 90¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t96 |
| Above 97 | 82¢ | ±0 | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t97 |
| Above 99 | 80¢ | −5pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t99 |
| Above 98 | 79¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t98 |
| Above 100 | 72¢ | +2pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t100 |
| Above 101 | 49¢ | +1pp | $202 | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t101 |
| Above 102 | 20¢ | −6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t102 |
| Above 105 | 10¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coca-cola-point-of-sale-growth-for-september-kalshi-kxcocacolapos-26oct03-t105 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 93 | Above 96 | Above 97 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | 93 | 92 | 82 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | 89 | 81 |
| 2026-09-10 | 97 | — | 83 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 4% probability that Coca-Cola's point-of-sale growth in August 2026 will exceed -3%, meaning traders believe the company faces a greater than 96% chance of declining more than 3% during this period. The low probability reflects expectations of significant headwinds for the beverage industry in August. Key drivers include consumer spending patterns during summer months, competitive pressures in the soft drink market, and broader economic conditions affecting discretionary purchases. The market will resolve based on Coca-Cola's official August 2026 point-of-sale data, typically reported in early September. The contract structure suggests traders are pricing in substantial weakness, with most probability mass concentrated on declines exceeding -7%.

### Key factors

- August 2026 point-of-sale performance will be officially reported by Coca-Cola in September, providing definitive resolution data
- The price structure (76¢ for >-11% vs 46¢ for >-3%) indicates market consensus expects August decline of 7-11%
- Summer seasonality, retail inventory management, and pricing strategies in Q3 directly affect monthly point-of-sale growth rates
- Overall beverage industry demand patterns and competitive market share shifts in the month will determine whether Coca-Cola's decline exceeds or stays within the -3% threshold
- Consumer spending trends, promotional activity levels, and channel mix (retail vs foodservice) during August will materially influence the final reported growth figure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cocacolapos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cocacolapos

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.