# Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 6 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/codtotalmaps
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:26.674Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 maps | 18¢ | −17pp | $594 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-los-angeles-thi-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031500latvan-5 |
| Over 3.5 maps | 55¢ | −23pp | $312 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-los-angeles-thi-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031500latvan-4 |
| Over 4.5 maps | 29¢ | −13pp | $175 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-g2-minnesota-vs-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031630g2mmh-5 |
| Over 3.5 maps | 66¢ | −31pp | $159 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-g2-minnesota-vs-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031630g2mmh-4 |
| Over 3.5 maps | 53¢ | −18pp | $139 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-boston-breach-v-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031800bospar-4 |
| Over 4.5 maps | 16¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-boston-breach-v-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031800bospar-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 3 |
| 2026-05-01 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 18 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +43pp 10→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Over 3.5 maps +33pp 34→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +32pp 2→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 3.5 maps −31pp 67→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +26pp 2→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether the Los Angeles Thieves and Vancouver Surge will play more than 3.5 maps in their Call of Duty match, currently priced at 35% probability, suggesting bettors expect the series to finish in four maps or fewer. Best-of-5 series in competitive Call of Duty typically end 3-0 or 3-1, making 3.5+ maps (requiring at least one team to win 3-2) less common. The probability reflects team strength differentials, recent form, and historical series length in professional Call of Duty. The match outcome will be determined when the teams play, with the exact map count resolving the contract immediately upon completion.

### Key factors

- Head-to-head historical matchup data between Los Angeles Thieves and Vancouver Surge in 2026 season, including previous series lengths and competitive balance
- Current season win-loss records and map differential for both teams, indicating whether one team consistently dominates early in series
- Recent roster changes, player performance trends, or meta shifts in Call of Duty that could favor extended competition or dominant play
- Map pool composition and team specialization—teams with distinct map strengths vs. weaknesses are more likely to split maps and extend series
- Comparison to baseline: 54% probability for Boston Breach vs. Paris, and 30% probability for G2 Minnesota vs. Miami suggests tier differences affect expected series length

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/codtotalmaps
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=codtotalmaps

## License

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