# Will Caltech drop in national university rankings

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 11 contracts — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/collegedrop
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.284Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $165

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | 54¢ | +1pp | $165 | kalshi | /markets/will-yale-drop-in-national-university-rankings-yal-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-yal |
| Caltech | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-caltech-drop-in-national-university-rankings-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-cal |
| Columbia | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-columbia-drop-in-national-university-rankings-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-col |
| Georgia Tech | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-tech-drop-in-national-university-rank-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-gt |
| Harvard | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harvard-drop-in-national-university-rankings-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-har |
| MIT | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mit-drop-in-national-university-rankings-mit-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-mit |
| Notre Dame | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-notre-dame-drop-in-national-university-rankin-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-not |
| Princeton | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-princeton-drop-in-national-university-ranking-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-pri |
| Stanford | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stanford-drop-in-national-university-rankings-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-sta |
| UCLA | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ucla-drop-in-national-university-rankings-ucl-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-ucl |
| University of Texas at Austin | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-university-of-texas-at-austin-drop-in-nationa-kalshi-kxcollegedrop-27-uta |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 31 |
| 2026-06-15 | 24 |
| 2026-06-22 | 39 |
| 2026-06-27 | 42 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 32% chance that Caltech will decline in its national university ranking in the next evaluation period. University rankings are determined by factors including research output, faculty prestige, student selectivity, graduation rates, and peer assessments. Caltech's ranking could drop due to changes in research productivity, faculty departures, shifts in applicant quality, or methodological changes by ranking organizations like U.S. News or QS. The main driver of current uncertainty is that ranking methodologies evolve annually and institutional metrics fluctuate. The most significant catalyst will be the release of the next major ranking update, typically occurring in late summer or fall. Comparatively, peer elite institutions show similar or slightly higher drop probabilities, suggesting market participants view ranking changes as moderately risky events even for top-tier universities. Historical context matters: Caltech has maintained relatively stable rankings in recent years, which may support the 32% probability reflecting genuine but not dominant downside risk.

### Key factors

- Research productivity metrics and citation indices for Caltech faculty in the 2024-2025 academic year will directly influence rankings
- Changes to ranking methodologies by major organizations (U.S. News, QS, Times Higher Education) could systematically alter Caltech's relative position
- Faculty retention and departures, particularly in high-impact research areas, affect both research output metrics and peer reputation scores
- Caltech's acceptance rate and admitted student test score distributions relative to peer institutions may shift due to application volume changes
- Release of official 2026-2027 national university rankings will provide definitive resolution, typically occurring August-September 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/collegedrop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=collegedrop

## License

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